Hey everyone, sorry for the lack of updates on all the tropical activity… I was in Vermont for 6 days and been back in Treasure Island for a few days but none of the tropical systems were too terribly interesting until now. Hurricane Ike is going to be a storm to keep a very close eye on and may warrant some more hurricane preparations and possibly evacuations.
Currently the storm is located around 250 miles north east of Puerto Rico moving WSW at 15mph as a Category 3 storm with 115mph sustained winds. The computer models are slightly in more agreement with this storm than most other storms so far this season. At this time the models take the storm into the lower Bahamas through 48 hours (Sunday 5pm). There is a bit of separation between the models in this time range, half take it south close to Cuba and the other half take it through the lower half of the Bahamas. If the storm track heads south along the Cuban coast then there is a good chance for intensification back to a Category 4 storm. If the storm stays through the middle or lower Bahamas then the storm may weaken a bit due to strong wind shear to the north. Around the 96 hour range the models take the storm in two distinct directions, again if the storm travels through the Bahamas then the storm will likely turn just prior to making land fall along the south east Florida coast and head North. If the storm takes the southern route it will almost certainly hit the keys somewhere between Key West and Marathon as a Category 3 or stronger. This is obviously the storm track to watch as if this pans out, the storm will turn NNW and ride just off the west coast of Florida as a Cat 3 or stronger.
Considering the computer models seem to have a much better idea on the two possible routes with this storm than others this season, I would say we would know almost for sure if we will be severely impacted by this storm by Sunday. If the storm holds the southern track then we will be in the worst of the storm from around Wednesday 2am through early Thursday morning sometime.
Ill keep giving updates on this as I find out more.
