Very active & severe weather the next four days!

Hey folks, time for a weather update concerning the very active weather pattern we have coming our way. Currently the SPC has issued a ‘Moderate Risk’ for severe storms both today and tomorrow in west Oklahoma and parts of the Texas Panhandle. This moderate risk zone includes the north west part of the DFW metroplex for Sunday! This means we are very likely to have severe weather for Sunday. This weather pattern is nearly ideal for tornado producers as well. The main risk areas both days will remain to our north east but it is certainly worth mentioning that we are within this risk zone for Sunday. After that, we are still labeled in a ‘Slight Risk’ zone for severe weather Monday, and possibly Tuesday though that risk area is mainly to our west. Wednesday is still four days out so it is hard to say with certainty if we will receive severe weather but at the moment we are not in any risk zones.

(Saturday’s risk zones by the SPC)

So heres a look in detail at our upcoming weather. For the remainder of today (Saturday), severe weather is likely in west Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle. These storms are almost certainly going to be tornado producers, with a good likelyhood of strong long lived tornados. These will continue through the night into Sunday morning when a line of elevated hail producing storms develops to our west. We also have a chance for storms to develop today, but they are likely to occur from 10pm and after. We are not in a ‘Slight Risk’ zone but an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out.

(Sunday’s risk zones by the SPC)

Sunday’s storms may impact the metroplex in the morning through until noon, with the most likely time frame being 10am Sunday. Once these storms clear the area, this opens the way for the surface based supercell storms to develop to our north and west. Again, these are in a ‘Moderate Risk’ zone and are very likely to produce strong long lasting tornados. These will likely remain away from the metroplex until late sunday, possibly 7pm through midnight? I am not 100% on these as there is some variance among computer models.

(Monday’s risk zones by the SPC)

Monday also brings a ‘Slight Risk’ for the DFW metroplex, though the risks will be mainly hail and winds. There is some question as to the severity of these storms as a low level jet transporting moisture from the south will have weakened substantially. However some elevated severe storms may still develop ahead of an approaching cold front and bring hail and high winds. The tornado threat at this time does not appears substantial for Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday look to have scattered to numerous thunderstorms around the area bringing mainly heavy rain. We are not labeled in a severe risk area for these days at this time. These look like they may actually be all day events as well, so I do not have specific timing regarding these days.

Overall, the next 4 days we appear to be set to receive up to 6 inches of rain! I will keep everyone updated for the next few days as this appears to be a great weekend for a tornado outbreak from the Texas panhandle and possibly west central Texas, west Oklahoma, into Kansas!