Friday's severe weather outlook looks to place the bulk of the severe action right in our neighborhood with the best risk of severe weather anywhere from the DFW Metroplex through to the western North Texas region. Currently the SPC has us under a 'Slight' risk, but they have noted in their forecast discussion this may very well be increased to a 'Moderate' risk once these thunderstorm complexes begin to initiate.
At this time, we are looking at our primary risk time being in the afternoon to evening hours with storms similar in nature to what we experienced last night. These storms will likely form to our west and become a large MCS again, develop a large cold air pool which creates a mini cold front that will push our way, and create a line of severe thunderstorms. Forecast MLCAPE values of 3000 – 4000 J/KG makes for an incredibly unstable atmosphere, so when storms develop, they will become severe very quickly.
The NWS office in Fort Worth notes that the scenereo that is likely to play out for Friday has similarities to the June 1 2004 derecho event that occured in the metroplex. A derecho simply put, is a large line of severe thunderstorms over 100 kilometers wide that produce extremely strong winds generally exceeding 64 knots, last for numerous hours and generally travel well over 400 kilometers. Derechos can produce similar types of wide spread wind damage that you might find from a category 2 hurricane. The event that occured here on June 1 2004 caused large ammounts of building, tree, power line damage, and left over 500,000 residents of the metroplex without power. At least 79 severe weather reports were received by the NWS office in Fort Worth from this one event! Again, if a derecho event were to occur, the main risk is extremely strong straight line winds with a good possibility of very large hail as well.
Currently the SPC has us under a 30% hail risk with a 10% risk of 2 inch hail or larger, 30% wind risk and 5% tornado risk. Again, as we progress later in the day Friday, these values are likely to be adjusted. Tomorow will very likely be a severe weather day for the metroplex, so I will send out updates as the scenereo unfolds.
The severe weather threat will continue through Saturday and Sunday when this weather pattern finally sweeps out of the area. Saturday brings a 30% chance of thunderstorms, Sunday has a 60% chance of storms. The storms this weekend will most likely bring very heavy rain, and the NWS in Fort Worth mentioned that a Flood Watch may be needed for our area on Saturday and Sunday. Areas currently swamped from the ~15 inches of rain dumped on Thursday are likely going to receive the heaviest rain this weekend so any flooding conditions now are likely to get worse.
Is everyone liking spring time in Texas yet?! Nothing like this ever occurs in Florida this regularly!
