No storm chasing was to be had on day 1, but there are still 10 more days left to enjoy. Unfortunately the outlook for the next 10 days isn’t that great.
Sunday’s forecast looks to bring some severe weather to Florida with typical afternoon thunderstorms. Sadly these will be the most interesting thing occurring in the country for Sunday. I will likely just go sightseeing around Texas for this Sunday since it is bound to be a beautiful day. Below is the day 1 outlook by the SPC, valid for Sunday May 17 2009.
In the short term, the best severe weather chances I see appear on Tuesday and Wednesday in the central to northern plains of Nebraska and South Dakota. However computer models are forecasting a strong cap in place so storm coverage appears to be limited at best, and non existant at worst. In any event I am planning on heading up to the central plains for Tuesday and Wednesday unless the forecast gets worse.
Thursday looks to be a quiet day at this time across the country so this could be a down day, travel day, or a sightseeing day.
Friday looks like it may have some storms in the southern plains in Texas and Oklahoma but these are 144 hours out and the models at this time do not show much of a severe weather threat.
Saturday looks a little better for severe weather in Oklahoma and Texas. Maximum CAPE values exceeding 2000 J/KG, a weak cap, moderate shearing, and good moisture looks possible. Saturday looks pretty fair at this time.
Sunday appears to set up a boundary stretching the length of tornado alley from the dakotas all the way through the Texas panhandle. This is still 192 hours out so models are having a hard time getting any more specific, but it appears that a severe weather event may occur in the plains for next Sunday.
Monday, Memorial Day also sets up a severe weather event, across a good portion of the country. This appears to stretch from the Texas gulf coast, through the panhandle and up along the western flank of tornado alley. Also a big blob of instability around Kentucky and southern Ohio.
