Hey Folks, I have been watching this one for a few days now and the forecasts have been pretty consistent since Monday regarding the overall location, severity and timing on this. A strong cold front will push through Thursday evening colliding with plenty of instability and low level moisture, creating favorable conditions for organized severe weather. The bulk of this activity will remain to our northeast like NE Texas, E Oklahoma, Arkansas and Missouri. However the northeastern portions of the DFW metroplex are still within the ‘Slight’ severe storm risk zone drawn by the SPC earlier today.
Currently the timing puts these storms arrival about 6 to 7pm which is about when the storms will be reaching maturity. The storms will start to develop as discreet storm cells with high hail chances, eventually become supercells with high hail and low tornado risks, then probably merge into a complex line of storms with a moderate risk of severe winds and hail. I do not know for sure but these storms may be in the supercell stage and transitioning to a more linear storm type at the time they are passing through our area… so my guess is we will probably get some high winds, a decent chance of hail and a low chance of tornados. The front will progress through the area very quickly, which means the storms that develop along this frontal boundary may be forced out of supercell structures quickly and into linear form like you see with most cold fronts.
This is not likely to be a major severe weather event, but it is worth noting. I will send updates as I can on this. Temps on Friday will be cooler, highs around 80, lows in the mid 50s, under clear skies. Plan for rain this weekend with 20% rain chances on Saturday and 60% on Sunday as this cold front begins to retreat northward and brings rain chances back.
