Severe weather potential with this system will be low… despite the breezy southern winds bringing gulf moisture north, the western Gulf of Mexico has been scoured dry recently and there simply isn’t a surplus of moisture to transport to the north. The relative lack of moisture means CAPE values are forecast to be in the 200-400 J/KG range on Wednesday, which is typically far too low to create an appreciable severe weather threat. Flash Flooding may still be a possibility as heavy rains are forecast. As a side note, the remains of Hurricane Rick from the eastern Pacific basin may interact with this storm system on Wednesday causing a significant increase in rainfall totals. The chance of this is small as only one computer model has forecast this, but may still be worth mentioning.
So what can we expect the next few days? Tuesday will see highs near 80 with partly cloudy skies and south winds gusting to 25mph. Wednesday through Thursday morning will see overcast, heavy rains and some thunderstorms, 56 for a low, 76 for a high. Thursday mid-day through at least Monday is forecast to remain clear and cool with lows in the mid 40s, highs in the mid 70s, slowly increasing a degree or two each day. Looks like another beautiful weekend is in the forecast!
