Current forecasts from the Storm Prediction Center and our local weather forecast office have mentioned a severe storm risk for Wednesday late afternoon through evening.
Currently the computer models agree on the location for storm initiation across the western parts of north Texas near Wichita Falls through Breckenridge at 4 to 6pm. The storms will progress eastward throughout the evening, switching from a ‘surface’ based storm to a more ‘elevated’ structure. What this means for us is that tornado risk decreases, while hail and wind risk remains the same. Computer models differ in regards to timing of these storms moving through the metroplex, but current thinking suggests approximately midnight. The environment will still remain supportive of severe thunderstorms at this time, so I would plan for some potentially severe weather in the form of hail and winds. The storms will continue eastward throughout all of north Texas and clear the region by sunrise Thursday.
Clearing skies with slightly cooler temps will spread over the area for Thursday and Friday. The next storm system will move through the region Saturday afternoon and evening, with a very similar setup as Wednesday. However there will be less moisture available Saturday, so storms will likely be less intense.
