A long awaited weather pattern shift is forecast to arrive for the upcoming labor day weekend! Our long standing upper level high pressure ridge, which has kept most storm systems at bay and brought record breaking heat for the last two months, is expected to shift eastward as we approach the weekend. This allows a low pressure trough to move through the northern plains and send a cold front into north Texas, likely on Sunday.
All computer models expect a tropical wave currently residing in the western Caribbean sea, to develop into a tropical system by the end of the work week. The storm will reside in the western Gulf of Mexico, just off the Texas coast. The timing of this tropical system, and the expected cold front, creates a tricky forecast in respect to the specific forecast track and precipitation chances for north Texas.
The cold front will no doubt influence the course, speed, and available moisture on the northern side of the tropical system, so it is all a question of timing now. How fast can the tropical system develop and move northward, before interacting with the cold front and sliding northeast, or being repelled southwest.
My best guess is to side with the GFS model, in relation to the storm’s behavior. I’d expect the tropical system to develop into a weaker tropical storm by September 4, just offshore the Texas\Louisiana coastline. The cold front should be sufficiently close by to significantly slow or stop the movement of the tropical system in this spot. The storm will then be pushed west and southwest into central and southern coastal Texas by September 6 and 7.
A high pressure ridge setup over the midwest behind the cold front, and the close proximity of this tropical system, would likely setup fairly strong northeasterly winds across north Texas around September 4 through 7. Winds from this direction aren’t exactly ideal for rain production, and north Texas would likely reside behind the cold front too. I won’t rule out some isolated moderate to heavy rainfall, but I also wouldn’t count on any drought busting precipitation.
Air temperatures behind the cold front will be the most noticeable weather this upcoming weekend, with highs expected in the upper 80s to low 90s! Overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Unfortunately this cool air streak won’t last for too long, as the dominant summertime high pressure ridge would likely return. This time of year however is climatologically late summer for north Texas, so I wouldn’t expect many more 100+ degree days this season.
One final note too, Tropical Storm Katia, currently deep in the Atlantic Ocean, will likely develop into a major hurricane within the next 5 days. I doubt this storm will affect the United States by making landfall however. It’s current forecast track takes it well away from the coastal U.S. No need to worry about this storm.
