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The next cold front on tap for the region is now set to move through Thursday evening close to sunset. The low level trough is nearly co-located with the cold front, while the upper level trough lags behind the front again. This means rain chances before the front’s arrival are possible, but the best chance for rain will be after the front passes.

 

The picture above shows the GFS model’s forecast for 4pm CDT Thursday. I’ve added my own lines to indicate the major features I am discussing. The cold front is approaching north Texas, while the low level trough is passing through just ahead. The upper level tough’s energy mostly remains to our north, but we may be clipped by it as it swings by. This should provide just enough of a spark to bring rain chances area wide for Thursday evening through Friday mid-day perhaps. It’s a bit hard to gauge exactly when rain will occur and more specifically when it will end at this time.

Also this model hints at rain in the northeast parts of the metroplex on Saturday afternoon and evening. The front will likely stall just south of north Texas, and could provide enough lift for rain and storms to develop in the area on Saturday. I’ll keep an eye on it to see how this evolves.

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