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091212-grearth

For days the GFS model has hinted at a cluster of rainfall developing Saturday afternoon over southeast Oklahoma and extending into northeast Texas like the Sherman/Denison area. The National Weather Service is beginning to think this is plausible now too, with some upper level energy moving through around that time to spark some rain. So as a result I now include it in my forecast as well.

Again hopefully this graphic isn’t too confusing… tried to add three days worth of weather into one image.

I attempt to demonstrate how slow the cold front will progress through the area. Thursday through Saturday the front only makes slow progress through north Texas, all three days it helps provide the focus for rain and storm activity, especially Thursday afternoon. I attempted to color code the areas most likely to experience rain with the day too. All 3 days the DFW metroplex is covered under the potential for rainfall.

Again, the strongest storms will occur Thursday afternoon and night, as the front makes it’s initial push into DFW. It will stall, as a result the forcing along the front subsides, and storm intensity falls. Friday and Saturday maybe just expect some scattered rain showers and occasional weak to normal thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoons and evenings. However they may occur at any time of day or night, especially Friday.

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