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A Tornado Watch has been issued for central Oklahoma and north central Texas, including the DFW Metroplex. The watch discussion indicates the likelihood of isolated supercell thunderstorms to develop this afternoon with large hail being the primary risk. The storm mode will likely evolve into a large storm complex later this evening and overnight. A low level jet will develop around this time, and the tornado risk will then increase. With CAPE values approaching 5000 J/KG, storm development today will be explosive.
The Fort Worth WFO mentioned in their discussion earlier today that the forecast is quite difficult as computer models have not been able to identify and resolve smaller features like remnant outflow boundaries. Today’s forecast seems to be changing significantly every few hours regarding timing and the types of severe threats. This is a good day for everyone to keep a close eye to the weather, it can be very unpredictable.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 326 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 150 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MINERAL WELLS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 321...WW 322...WW 323...WW 324...WW 325... DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING ERODES REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. 18Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWED THAT THE WARM SECTOR IS ALREADY EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 5000 J/KG. THIS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 35-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INTENSIFIES IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SLY LLJ. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020. ...MEAD
A quick update here, the SPC has upgraded the outlook to a Moderate risk for northeast Oklahoma, through Chicago, into central Wisconsin. The DFW Metroplex still remains at a slight risk with our best severe risk being large hail. Storm timing is still set for the afternoon through evening. Keep watching the skies today Texans!
Another round of severe weather is possible across a large portion of the country, including the DFW Metroplex on Sunday 5/22/11. The SPC discussion mentions 40kt deep layer shear and extreme instability with CAPE around 4000 J/KG. A CAPE of 4000 J/KG is very high and means that any thunderstorms that do develop, will become [read more...]
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Various severe hail and wind reports came from around the DFW Metroplex on Friday 5/20/11. No significant severe weather occurred thankfully. Mostly hail of between 0.88 to 1.25 inches, and 60mph winds. Some reports of wind damage came from Wills Point, just east of the metroplex, where a roof was blown off and powerlines were downed. [read more...]
A slight risk of severe weather exists for DFW on Friday 5/20/11. Primary risks include straight line winds and a marginal hail risk. Storm modes may are likely to be linear with bowing segments, indicating isolated small tornadoes are also possible. Excerpt from NWS Forecast Discussion: PLENTY ON INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE FOR SOME SEVERE [read more...]