Oct 292009

Yesterday late afternoon the weather service noted that the squall line’s arrival would be delayed since winds backing it would end up becoming parallel with the line and thus slowing it down. So far that line has slowed way down and its eastward progression is only 10 knots or so. At that pace, the line would reach Fort Worth by 11am, DFW Airport by 12pm and Frisco at 12:30pm or so.
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Overnight a Tornado Watch was issued, then subsequently canceled when the squall line abruptly lost forward momentum and severity. Currently the line of storms set to affect us still has good severe potential, but the only severe storms actually occurring are north of us between Tulsa and Oklahoma City. Instability is still limited as the overcast skies across our area will greatly limit daytime heating. Tornado genesis is still possible with any supercells or bow echos that may form due to the very strong low level shearing across the area. The primary threat from this event is still high winds at this time.

I will try to send out updates as I can on this if any severe storms or other interesting weather is set to affect our area.

Hey everyone… I have been slammed for time lately and have just not had a chance to send this out until now, and even so I need to keep it short. Looks like a severe weather event is likely to impact north Texas through the overnight hours into early Thursday morning. Wind shearing is is ‘tremendous’ as noted by the weather service, with an upper level jet stream moving along at about 200 knots, and a low level jet moving from the south at 40-50 knots. Bulk shearing (used to calculate storm severity and tornado potential) will be around 70 knots which is very high and more than enough to support severe thunderstorms. Moisture return is vigorous as well with dew points approaching 70 degrees just after midnight. Convective inhibition will be low (favorable for severe) as well. The only limiting factor here is the amount of atmospheric instability. This cold front will be pushing through the area around 4am to 8am Thursday morning, at that time of day, instability is extremely low as there is no daytime heating yet. However it looks like the other factors especially the extremely strong wind shearing and strong forcing caused by the cold front, will overwhelm the lack of instability and cause a severe storm event anyways.

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Again, we are looking at timing from anytime after midnight, but likely between 4 to 8am Thursday. Storms will likely be linear like a squall line, with embedded bow echos and possibly supercells as well. Main threat from this will be severe winds, though hail is a definite possibility as well. The SPC and local forecast offices have mentioned tornados as being possible as well. This is due to the impressive low level jet (40-50knots).

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I will send updates later as I have to run for now.

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Heavy rainfall totals and whats to come...

Rainfall totals continue to increase with widespread light rainfall across most of north Texas. I re-checked earlier today and DFW Airport’s total rainfall had increased, now bumping us up to the 7th rainiest October. Below is measured rainfall totals as of approximately 7:00am Monday morning. This is provided by the CoCoRaHS network, volunteers around the [read more...]

Heavy rain impacts around the Metroplex

Now that the heaviest rains are beginning to exist the Metroplex as they move east, I will send a brief update on tonight’s severe weather impacts. Only a few reports of high winds around the area, none of them reporting any damage so far. Several large hail reports in Parker, Tarrant, Denton and Cooke counties. [read more...]

Right on time, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the DFW Metroplex until 1:00am CDT. Scattered showers are developing around the area including several within a few miles of Frisco. Isolated supercells are still possible this evening, primary threats remain as wind and hail. URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER [read more...]

So far the forecast is still on track for heavy rains, thunderstorms and possibly some isolated severe thunderstorms. This is still set to range anytime from 6 to 7pm through Monday mid-day to afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be issued shortly by the SPC in Oklahoma with the primary threat being severe wind, then [read more...]

Severe weather possible Sunday 7pm to midnight

This system has not had much model consistency and been hard to pinpoint a specific time and intensity level of storms. However being 18-24 hours out from this event and the Storm Prediction Center now issuing our area under a ‘Slight’ risk of severe storms, it seems worth mentioning. The local forecast office does not [read more...]

October 25, 1921 marks an anniversary of the last major hurricane to directly impact Pinellas County, FL. This storm inundated the barrier islands with storm surge creating several passes including Johns Pass between Treasure Island and Madeira beach. Below is an excerpt from Bay News 9  regarding this storm: Link directly to Article By Bay [read more...]

Since moving to Frisco Texas a year ago I have seen the terminology ‘In Texas it takes a flood to end a drought’ used quite a few times, now I understand why that phrase is quite accurate. So far for the month of October DFW Airport has recorded 7.09 inches of rainfall, placing us 4.12 [read more...]

Flash Flooding across the Metroplex

Several Flash Flood Warnings are issued for Tarrant, Denton, Collin, Grayson, Cooke and other counties around the area. A band of very heavy rainfall has fallen creating flooding conditions most notably around Fort Worth where several high water rescues have been taking place after motorists get stranded in high waters. Additionally the Trinity river at [read more...]

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