Previous forecasts are still on track and all of north Texas looks set to receive a healthy drenching from heavy showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday. Currently cloud cover will continue to increase throughout the night as southern winds continue to feed moisture northward, then rain showers will start around the Metroplex close to 10am. The rain showers will continue the entire day until evening, when thunderstorms will develop. Instability in the atmosphere is still forecast to be low so severe storm potential is quite low. The showers and thunderstorms will continue through early Thursday morning and taper off close to 3am.
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Flooding remains a good potential since the area lake and river basins are still filling into their flood control ponds and the soil is still relatively saturated. The weather service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for the eastern two thirds of north Texas for this reason. Our area is set to receive about 2 to 3 inches of rain with the possibility of more in localized pockets.

So remember to bring your umbrellas on Wednesday… Thursday through Sunday still look clear and cool in the forecasts… Monday brings a very small possibility of more rain showers but at this time chances are only 10% and not noted in any forecast descriptions.

Have you noticed that breezy southern wind on Monday? That is the setup for an upcoming storm system we have moving our direction. Wednesday’s forecast calls for heavy showers and thunderstorms most of the day, with the bulk of activity occurring after 7pm. This is due to a short wave trough forecast to move over the region, interacting with the increased moisture which will be in place Wednesday due to the southern winds we are currently experiencing. The southern winds are a result of a tight pressure gradient across the region, created by a strong high pressure over the southeastern states, and a low pressure cyclone sitting over eastern Colorado. I have noticed in this region, breezy winds from the south generally indicate a strong storm system will affect the area within two days, this being no exception.

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Severe weather potential with this system will be low… despite the breezy southern winds bringing gulf moisture north, the western Gulf of Mexico has been scoured dry recently and there simply isn’t a surplus of moisture to transport to the north. The relative lack of moisture means CAPE values are forecast to be in the 200-400 J/KG range on Wednesday, which is typically far too low to create an appreciable severe weather threat. Flash Flooding may still be a possibility as heavy rains are forecast. As a side note, the remains of Hurricane Rick from the eastern Pacific basin may interact with this storm system on Wednesday causing a significant increase in rainfall totals. The chance of this is small as only one computer model has forecast this, but may still be worth mentioning.

So what can we expect the next few days? Tuesday will see highs near 80 with partly cloudy skies and south winds gusting to 25mph. Wednesday through Thursday morning will see overcast, heavy rains and some thunderstorms, 56 for a low, 76 for a high. Thursday mid-day through at least Monday is forecast to remain clear and cool with lows in the mid 40s, highs in the mid 70s, slowly increasing a degree or two each day. Looks like another beautiful weekend is in the forecast!

Gloomy October may be one for the record books

Looks like all the overcast skies we have had around are more excessive than normal for October… the National Weather Service released a statement mentioning this October is currently on track to be the cloudiest October ever. Some highlights from the statement include: 86% of the month has been under cloudy skies. Only 1820 minutes [read more...]

Wednesday severe weather threat now minimal

Looks like the Storm Prediction Center revised their forecast and the severe weather potential is now minimal as conditions are no longer very favorable for severe storms. Storm development is still possible Wednesday late evening after midnight. These storms will be the last rain we get for a few days as conditions will begin to [read more...]

Flash Flooding around North Texas!

A band of moderate to heavy rainfall is sitting stationary just south and east of the DFW Metroplex, prompting Flash Flood Warnings and even a high water rescue in the city of Terrell.  Rain totals in these areas since 6 pm Monday are around 2.25 inches estimated, showing that the soil is so heavily saturated [read more...]

Rain to continue - Severe storms possible Wednesday

Hey everyone… looks like the end is near for these overcast skies. Last weekend ended up being overcast both days despite the previous forecasts for clear skies both days. This weekend we will try again with conditions clearing up Thursday and remaining clear through Sunday. Until then, expect rainy conditions from midnight Tuesday morning through [read more...]

Heavy rainfall estimates and upcoming weather

Rainfall is coming to an end for today as the cold front sinks further to the southeast. Flooding isn’t as wide spread or severe as anticipated likely due to the lack of rainfall during the day Thursday, as had been previously forecast. Temperatures for the next several days will be significantly cooler, including lows in [read more...]

Severe weather and flash flooding possible Thursday

Heavy rains and Severe Thunderstorms are probable during the afternoon and evening hours of Thursday. The entire region is still under a Flash Flood Watch with around 2.5 inches of rain forecast the next 36 hours. Additionally the SPC in Oklahoma has our area under a ‘Slight’ severe storm risk with the main risk being [read more...]

Heavy rains likely Thursday and Friday - Flooding possible

The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for the DFW Metroplex including Frisco, from 1pm Thursday through 7pm Friday. The area’s waterways and soil is already very saturated, plus when you factor in the upcoming forecasts, conditions begin to scream Flash Flood. The weather service compared the forecast event to events that [read more...]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued for Denton County. Currently the storm is over far western Denton County, but moving east at about 35 knots. If the storm holds its severity, it will reach Frisco within 45-55 minutes, or around 1:45pm. Currently the storm looks marginally severe due to hail, along with strong winds but they dont [read more...]

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