Despite the warmer than normal conditions the past few weeks across north Texas, the immediate area remains mostly drought free. This is thanks in part to a wetter than normal mid-spring and a particularly rainy June 10-11. At this time nearly half of north Texas is drought free, however other areas range from a D1 all the way to D4 drought classification.
Agriculture is still suffering as soil moisture is still fairly low for the entire region, plus warmer than normal temps the past few weeks are causing substantial evaporation rates. Thankfully the region’s water reservoirs are mostly above 90% conservation, meaning there is plenty of water for the region to make it through summer without mandatory water restrictions. An amazing fact that I did not know, afternoon temperatures of 100 degrees can evaporate just as much water out of Lake Lewisville daily as all of Collin County uses in the same time period! That is 250 million gallons each, meaning possibly half a billion gallons are removed from Lake Lewisville every day, wow!
Long term climate forecasts show a fairly typical or possibly drier than normal Summer for north Texas. Anytime from maybe mid July through end of August at least is forecast to be very hot and mostly rain free. There is still a possibility of rain from now through mid July, including a cold front that will affect the area Monday-ish(7/6/09).
Areas west of Fort Worth in Palo Pinto, Stephens and Young counties are still in D1 drought designation, which simply means ‘Abnormally Dry’. Large areas of central Texas (to our south, areas around Austin) however are in a D4 classification which means ‘Exceptional Drought’, the most severe classification. Exceptional droughts are the type that have a return period of a half-century! For comparison, if you remember the extreme drought talks revolving around south Tennessee and Atlanta, Georgia running out of water last year, I only noticed them listed under a D3 classification.
Map showing the current drought classifications across the country. Note that Florida is now out of official drought classifications due to a rainy May and June. Good thing too, central Florida has been in either D1 or D2 status for a few years now.
Detailed information released by the National Weather Service regarding drought information in North Texas:
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1110 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009 ...CENTRAL TEXAS DROUGHT RE-INTENSIFIES... -------------------------------------------------------------------- SYNOPSIS... MAY AND JUNE WERE AMONG THE DRIEST ON RECORD IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE DROUGHT HAS BEEN LARGELY UNINTERRUPTED SINCE THE SUMMER OF 2008. EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) HAS BEEN EXPANDED...AND EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) HAS RETURNED TO MILAM COUNTY. THE MOST INTENSE CATEGORY...EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT IS RESERVED FOR EVENTS WITH A RETURN PERIOD OF A HALF CENTURY. THE RECENT AREA OF CONCERN IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...ALTHOUGH MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) REMAINS ACROSS YOUNG... STEPHENS...AND PALO PINTO COUNTIES. THANKS IN PART TO ADEQUATE SPRING RAINFALL (AND A DELUGE THE SECOND WEEK OF JUNE)...NEARLY HALF OF THE NWS FORT WORTH AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY CURRENTLY HAS NO DROUGHT DESIGNATION. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE AREAS STILL IN DROUGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT RELIEF IS ANTICIPATED THIS SUMMER...AND THE CENTRAL TEXAS DROUGHT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST. FORTUNATELY...NEARLY EVERY NORTH TEXAS LAKE IS ABOVE 80 PERCENT CONSERVATION...WITH MOST OVER 90 PERCENT. EVEN CENTRAL TEXAS RESERVOIRS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE...DESPITE CONSIDERABLE PRECIPITATION DEFICITS. -------------------------------------------------------------------- SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS BY THE END OF JUNE...LESS THAN A QUARTER OF NORTH TEXAS FARMLAND HAD ADEQUATE SOIL MOISTURE. THE WORST IMPACTS CONTINUE TO BE IN CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE THE CORN CROP IS STRUGGLING WITH EXTRAORDINARY HEAT. ALTHOUGH GENERALLY DROUGHT RESISTANT...SORGHUM IS ALSO STRESSED. SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING CONTINUES IN AREAS WHERE FORAGE IS DEPLETED OR OTHERWISE INADEQUATE. FIRE DANGER THE ABUNDANT EARLY SPRING RAINS GOT THE GROWING SEASON OFF TO A BOOMING START...BUT NEARLY ALL OF NORTH TEXAS SAW BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL DURING MAY AND JUNE. THE TURN OF FORTUNE WAS PARTICULARLY NOTICEABLE IN CENTRAL TEXAS. MANY AREAS BETWEEN I-35 AND I-45 RECEIVED LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN DURING THE LAST TWO MONTHS COMBINED. THE DRY VEGETATION HAS BECOME A CONCERN AS INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES APPROACH. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO BE VIGILANT ABOUT FIRE USAGE. ADHERE TO LOCAL BURN BANS AND AERIAL FIREWORKS RESTRICTIONS. EVEN WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS...WILDFIRES CAN QUICKLY START WHERE SUMMER VEGETATION IS DORMANT. SEVERAL NEW BURN BANS WERE ENACTED DURING JUNE...BRINGING THE TOTAL TO 14 IN THE NWS FORT WORTH AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. MOST OF THE NEW ADDITIONS WERE IN CENTRAL TEXAS. -------------------------------------------------------------------- CLIMATE SUMMARY... ON JUNE 10 AND 11...TORRENTIAL RAINS FELL IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 7 TO 8 INCHES WERE RECORDED IN CENTRAL DALLAS. HOWEVER...MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS MISSED OUT ON THE RAIN EVENT...AND STRUGGLED THROUGH A SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. CENTRAL TEXAS WAS PARTICULARLY HARD HIT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING UNDER AN INCH IN THE LAST 60 DAYS. WACO REGIONAL AIRPORT WENT 33 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL...BEFORE THE STREAK WAS BROKEN ON JUNE 30. THE COOPERATIVE OBSERVER IN THORNTON (LIMESTONE COUNTY) RECORDED 10.42 INCHES OF RAIN IN APRIL...BUT ONLY 0.05 INCHES IN JUNE. WITHIN THE EXTREME AND EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT AREAS OF CENTRAL TEXAS...SOME LOCATIONS HAVE AMASSED DEFICITS OF 20 INCHES SINCE LAST SUMMER. -------------------------------------------------------------------- PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... RIDGING ALOFT IS PROJECTED TO CONTINUE DOMINATING THE LONE STAR STATE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF JULY. AS A RESULT...THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (FOR EARLY TO MID JULY) HAVE MAINTAINED THE LIKELIHOOD FOR PERSISTENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. BOTH WOULD ASSURE FURTHER EVAPORATION...TAXING VEGETATION AND AREA RESERVOIRS. FADING SOIL MOISTURE IS A POSITIVE FEEDBACK IN THE PROCESS...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL WARMING. STRONG PRECIPITATION SIGNALS ARE RARELY SEEN DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS...AND NONE ARE PRESENT BEYOND THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. THUS...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE WELL ENTRENCHED CENTRAL TEXAS DROUGHT WILL ABATE BEFORE AUTUMN. -------------------------------------------------------------------- HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... THE RESERVOIR GAINS THAT FOLLOWED THE HEAVY RAINS OF EARLY JUNE WERE LARGELY ERASED BY THE HOT WEATHER DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE MONTH. ON THE HOTTEST OF DAYS...EVAPORATION ALONE CAN SKIM A HALF-INCH FROM THE SURFACE OF A LAKE. FROM LAKE LEWISVILLE...THAT EQUATES TO A QUARTER OF A BILLION GALLONS. THIS IS EQUIVALENT TO THE TOTAL WATER USAGE IN COLLIN COUNTY ON A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A CONTINUATION OF HOT WEATHER WILL ALLOW BOTH USAGE AND EVAPORATION TO TAKE THEIR TOLL ON NORTH TEXAS WATER RESOURCES. THANKFULLY...MOST RESERVOIRS WERE ABOVE 90 PERCENT CONSERVATION AT THE BEGINNING OF JULY. RESERVOIR DATA - JULY 2, 2009 NORMAL POOL DEFICIT/ PERCENT OF POOL HEIGHT SURPLUS CONSERVATION RED RIVER BASIN LAKE TEXOMA 619.0 618.92 -0.08 99 PAY MAYSE LAKE 451.0 451.27 +0.27 101 JIM CHAPMAN LAKE 440.0 439.42 -0.58 96 TRINITY RIVER BASIN LAKE BRIDGEPORT 836.0 827.46 -8.54 73 EAGLE MOUNTAIN LAKE 649.0 645.15 -3.85 83 LAKE WORTH 594.0 591.73 -2.27 80 LAKE BENBROOK 694.0 692.58 -1.42 93 LAKE RAY ROBERTS 632.5 632.50 0.00 100 LAKE LEWISVILLE 522.0 521.67 -0.33 98 LAKE GRAPEVINE 535.0 532.82 -2.18 90 LAKE LAVON 492.0 491.31 -0.69 97 LAKE RAY HUBBARD 435.5 435.34 -0.16 99 JOE POOL LAKE 522.0 521.48 -0.52 97 BARDWELL LAKE 421.0 419.78 -1.22 92 NAVARRO MILLS LAKE 424.5 423.82 -0.68 94 CEDAR CREEK RESERVOIR 322.0 321.63 -0.37 98 RICHLAND CHAMBERS 315.0 311.83 -3.17 88 BRAZOS RIVER BASIN POSSUM KINGDOM LAKE 1000.0 996.18 -3.82 86 PROCTOR LAKE 1162.0 1156.67 -5.33 57 BELTON LAKE 594.0 591.22 -2.78 91 STILLHOUSE HOLLOW 622.0 620.15 -1.85 95 LAKE GRANBURY 693.0 690.59 -2.41 86 LAKE WHITNEY 533.0 523.33 -9.67 21 AQUILLA LAKE 537.5 536.46 -1.04 90 WACO LAKE 462.0 461.68 -0.32 99 LAKE LIMESTONE 363.0 361.74 -1.26 92 IN GENERAL...WATER SUPPLIES ARE ADEQUATE TO HANDLE SUMMER DEMAND. NONETHELESS...MANY JURISDICTIONS HAVE MAINTAINED CALLS FOR VOLUNTARY CONSERVATION. EVEN IF FORMAL WATER RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR YOUR AREA...RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO BE SENSIBLE ABOUT WATER USAGE. AVOID WATERING BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6 PM...WHEN EVAPORATION LIMITS ITS EFFECTIVENESS. -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED IN LATE JULY OR EARLY AUGUST. -------------------------------------------------------------------- && -------------------------------------------------------------------- RELATED WEB SITES... NWS FORT WORTH DROUGHT PAGE - WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH/DROUGHT.HTML NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM - DROUGHT.GOV CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER - WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER - DROUGHT.UNL.EDU U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR - DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER - DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU -------------------------------------------------------------------- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS... THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FACILITATES CONTINUOUS DISCUSSION AMONG NUMEROUS AGENCIES...ACADEMIA...AND OTHER LOCAL INTERESTS. THE EXPERTISE OF ITS MEMBERS HAS BEEN INVALUABLE IN DEVELOPING DROUGHT PRODUCTS AND SERVICES FOR OUR CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS. THE DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER (MAINTAINED BY THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER) HAS ALLOWED VARIOUS IMPACTS TO BE COMPILED WITHIN ONE CLEARING HOUSE. THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE AGRICULTURAL ISSUES... HYDROLOGIC DEFICITS...FIRE DANGER...AND OTHER SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES. A SUMMARY OF THE SUBMITTED IMPACTS IS INCLUDED IN EACH DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. THE TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AND THE TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION SERVICE PROVIDE ROUTINE ASSESSMENTS OF CROP AND PASTURE CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE (NASS)...PART OF THE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (USDA). THE PERIODIC STATEWIDE SUMMARIES THAT RESULT ARE USED AS A PRIMARY SOURCE FOR THE AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS SECTION. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE (TFS) CONTINUALLY MONITORS VEGETATION CONDITIONS AND WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. THE STATE AGENCY ALSO MAINTAINS A CURRENT LIST OF COUNTYWIDE BURN BANS. OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ARE SUMMARIZED FROM A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS CREATED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC). CPC IS A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) ENTITY WITHIN THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION (NCEP). -------------------------------------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK ON OUR DROUGHT PRODUCTS AND SERVICES...PLEASE CONTACT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE 3401 NORTHERN CROSS BLVD. FORT WORTH, TX 76137 PHONE: (817) 429-2631 E-MAIL: SR-FWD.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
