Very active & severe weather the next four days!

Posted by Sean Toner at 4:04 pm No Responses »
Apr 252009
Hey folks, time for a weather update concerning the very active weather pattern we have coming our way. Currently the SPC has issued a ‘Moderate Risk’ for severe storms both today and tomorrow in west Oklahoma and parts of the Texas Panhandle. This moderate risk zone includes the north west part of the DFW metroplex for Sunday! This means we are very likely to have severe weather for Sunday. This weather pattern is nearly ideal for tornado producers as well. The main risk areas both days will remain to our north east but it is certainly worth mentioning that we are within this risk zone for Sunday. After that, we are still labeled in a ‘Slight Risk’ zone for severe weather Monday, and possibly Tuesday though that risk area is mainly to our west. Wednesday is still four days out so it is hard to say with certainty if we will receive severe weather but at the moment we are not in any risk zones.

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(Saturday’s risk zones by the SPC)

So heres a look in detail at our upcoming weather. For the remainder of today (Saturday), severe weather is likely in west Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle. These storms are almost certainly going to be tornado producers, with a good likelyhood of strong long lived tornados. These will continue through the night into Sunday morning when a line of elevated hail producing storms develops to our west. We also have a chance for storms to develop today, but they are likely to occur from 10pm and after. We are not in a ‘Slight Risk’ zone but an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out.

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(Sunday’s risk zones by the SPC)

Sunday’s storms may impact the metroplex in the morning through until noon, with the most likely time frame being 10am Sunday. Once these storms clear the area, this opens the way for the surface based supercell storms to develop to our north and west. Again, these are in a ‘Moderate Risk’ zone and are very likely to produce strong long lasting tornados. These will likely remain away from the metroplex until late sunday, possibly 7pm through midnight? I am not 100% on these as there is some variance among computer models.

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(Monday’s risk zones by the SPC)

Monday also brings a ‘Slight Risk’ for the DFW metroplex, though the risks will be mainly hail and winds. There is some question as to the severity of these storms as a low level jet transporting moisture from the south will have weakened substantially. However some elevated severe storms may still develop ahead of an approaching cold front and bring hail and high winds. The tornado threat at this time does not appears substantial for Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday look to have scattered to numerous thunderstorms around the area bringing mainly heavy rain. We are not labeled in a severe risk area for these days at this time. These look like they may actually be all day events as well, so I do not have specific timing regarding these days.

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Overall, the next 4 days we appear to be set to receive up to 6 inches of rain! I will keep everyone updated for the next few days as this appears to be a great weekend for a tornado outbreak from the Texas panhandle and possibly west central Texas, west Oklahoma, into Kansas!

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Upgraded to a slight severe storm risk today

Posted by Sean Toner at 12:15 pm No Responses »
Apr 242009
Hey everyone, the SPC just bumped us to a slight risk zone for today. They mentioned that moisture return overnight was stronger than expected and instability in the atmosphere looks to be more than sufficient for severe weather to develop. Assuming the overcast cloud deck burns off with the afternoon heating, then CAPE, named Convective Available Potential Energy, should reach about 2000J/kg which is more than sufficient to support strong or severe storms. Currently the risk is for isolated supercells with main risk being hail and winds. Our tornado risk is sitting pretty low at 2% today.

Todays severe outlook and discussion from the SPC is listed below:

042409-wxroutlook.gif

 ...CENTRAL/ERN TX...   THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH/VORT CENTER AT 15Z LOCATED VICINITY ABI WILL
   DRIFT EWD INTO NERN TX BY THIS EVENING.  SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LOW   LEVEL MOISTURE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN TX WHICH   COUPLED WITH THE RELATIVELY COLD/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES   ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HAS PUT IN PLACE A CONDITIONALLY
   QUITE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG BY EARLY THIS   AFTERNOON. THINNING OF MORNING CLOUDINESS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR   HEATING TO GENERALLY ELIMINATE CURRENT CINH. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD   INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY BY MID DAY CENTRAL TX AND SPREAD
   E/SEWD ACROSS THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR THRU THE EVENING.  WITH   EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL   WILL BE A CONCERN WITH STRONGER STORMS.  THERE WILL BE ADDITIONALLY   SUFFICIENT SHEAR AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT.  THIS WILL THEN SUPPORT THREAT OF AT LEAST AN ISOLATED   TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

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Unseasonably hot today - mid 90s

Posted by Sean Toner at 10:01 am No Responses »
Apr 222009
Unseasonably hot today - mid 90s

Hey everyone, after I woke up and took a look at today’s weather I noticed our high temps for the day got bumped up to the mid 90s! This will certainly be the hottest day of the year so far, but with humidity percentages quite low (in the teens) it shouldn’t be one of those [read more...]

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Frisco TX

Posted by Sean Toner at 4:54 pm No Responses »
Apr 182009

I am sure most of your weather radios went off for this one, or if it did not then something is wrong. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for our area, this means severe thunderstorms are likely today. The tornado threat today is low, this watch box is mainly for a high wind and large hail threat. [read more...]

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Significant weather advisory for Frisco TX

Posted by Sean Toner at 1:08 pm No Responses »
Apr 172009

I see some gusty winds behind this storm on radar, looks like gusts up to 55mph are possible occasionally. …Significant weather advisory for… Collin County Dallas County Ellis County Grayson County Rockwall CountyStrong winds blowing from the east with gusts of 35 to 50 mph are occurring along the back edge of an area of [read more...]

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Today's rain update

Posted by Sean Toner at 10:02 am No Responses »
Apr 172009

Im sure most people know by now but the rain is starting for Frisco and likely to continue for awhile today. THere is a line of storms just to our west that is drifting our direction at this time. Some of these embedded storms are severe with hail as the main risk. At this time [read more...]

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Weather update for the next three days

Posted by Sean Toner at 9:45 pm No Responses »
Apr 152009
Weather update for the next three days

Time for an update on the upcoming weather. Looks like this storm complex may not produce a significant severe weather event for our area anymore as the models have been pretty consistently showing the Texas panhandle and extreme south Texas as the two risk areas coming up the next few days. We will still certainly [read more...]

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Tornado damage survey results in Trinity and Wesley Chapel

Posted by Sean Toner at 11:34 am No Responses »
Apr 152009

Just a quick email as I am at work, here is the official tornado damage survey from the NWS regarding the two tornado touchdowns just north of Tampa. Sorry I didn’t get to send out any emails about this ahead of time. When i went to bed Monday night, the risk for Tampa wasn’t even [read more...]

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Interesting weather for Thursday & Friday in Texas

Posted by Sean Toner at 6:41 am No Responses »
Apr 142009
Interesting weather for Thursday & Friday in Texas

Howdy folks, here’s an outlook on this week’s upcoming weather. Looks like this weeks temps will be very comfortable with highs in the mid to upper 70s, lows in the mid 50s, and clear to partly cloudy skies through Wednesday. Thursday and Friday however will change as a large convective system known as Mesoscale Convective [read more...]

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Strong thunderstorm headed for Frisco

Posted by Sean Toner at 8:00 pm No Responses »
Apr 112009

Hey folks… storm with pea sized hail is headed our way from the south… eta puts it around 8:30pm approximately. …Significant weather advisory for… northern Dallas County At 753 PM CDT…National Weather Service meteorologists detected a strong thunderstorm 4 miles southwest of Dallas…moving northeast at 40 mph. Cities in the path of this storm include [read more...]

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