(Saturday’s risk zones by the SPC)
So heres a look in detail at our upcoming weather. For the remainder of today (Saturday), severe weather is likely in west Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle. These storms are almost certainly going to be tornado producers, with a good likelyhood of strong long lived tornados. These will continue through the night into Sunday morning when a line of elevated hail producing storms develops to our west. We also have a chance for storms to develop today, but they are likely to occur from 10pm and after. We are not in a ‘Slight Risk’ zone but an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out.
(Sunday’s risk zones by the SPC)
Sunday’s storms may impact the metroplex in the morning through until noon, with the most likely time frame being 10am Sunday. Once these storms clear the area, this opens the way for the surface based supercell storms to develop to our north and west. Again, these are in a ‘Moderate Risk’ zone and are very likely to produce strong long lasting tornados. These will likely remain away from the metroplex until late sunday, possibly 7pm through midnight? I am not 100% on these as there is some variance among computer models.
(Monday’s risk zones by the SPC)
Monday also brings a ‘Slight Risk’ for the DFW metroplex, though the risks will be mainly hail and winds. There is some question as to the severity of these storms as a low level jet transporting moisture from the south will have weakened substantially. However some elevated severe storms may still develop ahead of an approaching cold front and bring hail and high winds. The tornado threat at this time does not appears substantial for Monday.
Tuesday and Wednesday look to have scattered to numerous thunderstorms around the area bringing mainly heavy rain. We are not labeled in a severe risk area for these days at this time. These look like they may actually be all day events as well, so I do not have specific timing regarding these days.
Overall, the next 4 days we appear to be set to receive up to 6 inches of rain! I will keep everyone updated for the next few days as this appears to be a great weekend for a tornado outbreak from the Texas panhandle and possibly west central Texas, west Oklahoma, into Kansas!