Wow, Friday was an absolutely incredible severe weather day for the southeast states. As of this writing a total of 245 storm reports were given to the national weather service. A total of 38 separate tornado reports at least, 43 high wind reports, 164 hail reports with 15 being significant (2+ inches in diameter). A high risk of severe storms was issued for Friday, the first high risk issued this year. High risks are seldom issued and if your in a high severe storm risk area then its probably time to make your peace with the world! Basically Friday was an absolutely incredible severe storm day for the south east. Unfortunately at this time there have been 5 fatalities from tornadoes reported so far.
But now on to future events… Saturday and Sunday look to be soggy and possibly severe! A wave of instability in southern and western Texas will move its way to the east during the day Saturday but will not reach the metroplex by days end. However because of its delay in reaching us, this may actually allow a fair amount of moisture return to occur from the gulf and give us a significant severe weather outbreak for Sunday. Looking at the computer models it appears the timing has changed from being a cold front pushing through in the late Saturday / early Sunday timeframe, to it being a Sunday afternoon and evening event.
Current forecasts look like we will have widespread showers and thunderstorms occurring in the evening hours of Saturday and most of the overnight into midday Sunday. These storms do not look to be severe at this time. However a low pressure system will pass by in the afternoon hours as a low level jet brings moist air in from the gulf. This combined with daytime heating might be just enough to get some severe weather kicked off around here in the 4p to midnight timeframe on Sunday. The computer models I have looked at both indicate this as being a slight risk but timing and location both put this smack ontop of the metroplex. The SPC in Norman, OK mentioned in their discussion that this may end up becoming a moderate risk zone but we will see how this system evolves.
The next storm system coming our way appears to be in the Wednesday evening to Thursday timeframe, but confidence on this one is still low so no official advisory has been issued regarding this.
As always, if anything interesting changes then I will send out the update!
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