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A slight risk of severe weather exists tonight, as storm development is expected after sunset in portions of the southern plains. A warm front currently retreating northward throughout the day time today, will act as a focus for storm development tonight as an upper level trough quickly moves through the region.
Storm development will likely begin across central Oklahoma near Oklahoma City, and south along I-35. Wind profiles support forward propagation of these storms southward into north Texas as a line likely developing along an outflow boundary. Storm timing appears a bit difficult to determine with great precision, but the storms may enter north Texas around 10:00pm tonight.
Tonight’s main risk will be severe hail, but high winds are also possible. Because of the hail and ice production expected with these storms, frequent cloud to ground lightning would be expected as well.
A strong cold front is expected to push through the area Monday afternoon and evening, with very gusty winds and much colder air behind it. We are looking at the coldest air of the season so far with overnight lows in the mid 40s to upper 30s, and daytime highs only in the low 60s [read more...]
Oct 122011
Here is a quick cellphone camera grab of the departing overnight thunderstorms. You can see the large scale subsidence behind this trough evident in the cloud pattern. A sharp ending to cloud cover between the trough and the ridge behind it.
An upper disturbance will move through north Texas overnight Monday and through early Tuesday morning. With modest moisture still remaining in the atmosphere, this disturbance will probably produce a couple of rain showers and some thunder to the area. This disturbance will move from west to east and timing for rain or thunder to arrive [read more...]
Rainfall forecasts for this heavy rain event were extraordinarily accurate even 5 days out! Areas west of I-35 received 4-8 inches of rainfall, while a very sharp decrease in total rainfall exists east of I-35. Some areas in western north Texas even received 9 inches of rainfall. DFW Airport appears to have received about 1.5 inches. Storm [read more...]
Current forecasts have been tweaked slightly, but the overall expected pattern has not changed much the last several days. Areas west of I-35 are expected to receive the heaviest rainfall from this 3 day event, with 4-8 inches expected. Areas within the Metroplex are likely to see about 0.5 to 1 inch, with isolated pockets [read more...]
The very powerful early season winter storm currently affecting the western US, and bringing snow to higher elevations, is still expected to bring wide spread heavy rainfall to north Texas this weekend. The GFS model has consistently shown a multi-day heavy rain event to affect our entire region starting this weekend, and stretching through at least Monday morning 10/10 of next week.
For the past several days, computer models have consistently shown a powerful storm system reaching the western coast of the continental US around mid-week this upcoming week. This storm system is expected to bring drastic changes to weather for the inter-mountain regions of the western U.S. including heavy snow for higher elevations. This storm system [read more...]
Scattered thunderstorms which developed along a southward moving cold front produced some of the most photogenic lightning I have ever captured! These storms brought some beneficial rain to the region, but I think the main headline from this event is the intense and quite impressive night time lightning show.
