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Here is an example of where current computer modeling can use a major improvement… Subtle boundaries not easily resolved by current large scale computer models occurred last night, bringing relatively dry thunderstorms to the northern part of the Metroplex. These were known to start several wildfires just north of D/FW.

Computer models had hinted at the possibility of a stray storm reaching the northern counties along the Red River for at least a week, but confidence in that solution was so low that hardly any mention of it was made. Of course, some severe weather did occur after all with wind damage reports in Wise County.

Now today leftover outflow boundaries reside across the Metroplex. With other conditions also more favorable for thunderstorm development, we may see an isolated t-storm or two develop after all.

Instability throughout the atmosphere has increased slightly, and the previously dry mid-atmosphere has moistened considerably overnight. This coupled with the remnant outflow boundaries from last night’s unexpected thunderstorms, may help initiate some storms here today as well.

Location is extremely difficult to pinpoint, again due to the same weaknesses in computer models that did not resolve last night’s thunderstorms well. Best guess is for areas northeast of the D/FW Metroplex, but anywhere within north Texas has a 20% chance of storms today. These storms will likely be diurnal based, meaning after sunset they will lose most intensity. Storms aren’t expected to be severe, but a strong storm or two can’t be ruled out.

Next rain chances are set for the middle of next week, when large scale pattern shifts will bring several days of increased precipitation chances to the region.

The National Weather Service indicated a minimal chance of thunderstorm activity around the Red River tonight for the past week, but all the latest model runs showed that to be hardly worth mentioning. Now as of 12:40am CDT, an Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued for Denton County, just north of the Metroplex. Gotta love that unpredictable weather huh?

There is a large dry slot of air in the mid-atmosphere, so these thunderstorms may be of the low precipitation type. That means plenty of lightning but little rain, so wildfires may be started by lightning.

Due to the dry slot in the mid-atmosphere, these storms would be capable of high straight line winds, and some marginal severe hail.

According to the National Weather Service, D/FW Airport reached 100 degrees F for the first time this season. Waco has topped 100 degrees F seven times this year thus far. At D/FW, the record high for this date is 102  set back in 1924. In Waco the record high for this date is 103 set [read more...]

Hot and dry weather to persist across DFW

Our early summertime pattern persists across the DFW Metroplex with hot, humid and rain free conditions the next seven days. Small indications of isolated showers this upcoming mid-week near the Red River have faded away. Currently we are looking at daily highs in the upper 90s to 100, and nighttime lows in the 70s, possibly [read more...]

For the next week or so, I will not be able to provide live radar data on my website. I estimate the time frame from 6/9/11 through 6/18/11 for this feature to be offline. My home server actually generates these images then uploads them to this website. I am moving to a new address during [read more...]

A dominant ridge of high pressure has firm control of our weather for the next 7 days still, with hot temperatures around the entire region. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday across the eastern half of north Texas. Ample moisture, coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate instability should [read more...]

The latest damage surveys conducted by the National Weather Service confirm 8 tornadoes from around north Texas on May 24. This includes one tornado in Denton County which affected Argyle, Denton, and Corinth. Read below for details. …Damage survey update for the may 24th storms… National Weather Service crews spent the day conducting additional damage [read more...]

Gallery: Arbor Hills in late Spring

A beautiful late spring day in north Texas. Flowers were blooming and the sun was shining. It was just a beautiful day for a walk in the park.

Rotation tracks and tornado damage from the 5/24/11 storms

I created a map of approximate mesocyclone tracks based off high res radar data in Fort Worth. I will continue adding tornado damage reports in as the National Weather Service conducts it’s damage surveys. Click here to view the complete map. So far there have been two tornadoes known to occur within the Metroplex. One in Irving, [read more...]

Preliminary storm reports from around the Metroplex

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