Watching the Skies » Heavy Rainfall

Strong to severe thunderstorms late Thursday through Friday evening

Sean Toner — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 18:38:19 +0000

Folks in the southern plains states of Texas, Oklahoma, and even into Arkansas will likely get a round of strong to severe thunderstorms starting Thursday evening. A strong low pressure system developing on the leeward side of the Rocky Mountains will funnel rich gulf moisture northward across the region. This same system will pull a pacific cold front eastward and should provide the catalyst needed for widespread strong to severe weather.

SPC Day 1 Categorical Outlook, for Thursday 2/2/12. A slight risk of severe thunderstorms exists across parts of the southern plains.

On Thursday 2/2/12, while atmospheric conditions across the D/FW Metroplex are ripe for supporting thunderstorms, the lack of any lifting agent like a cold front or upper level trough will fail to spark any thunderstorm initiation during the daytime. Late Thursday into Friday however will be different…

SPC Day 2 Categorical Outlook, for Friday 2/3/12. A slight risk of severe thunderstorms exists between Oklahoma City, to Dallas/Fort Worth, then east to Little Rock.

Thunderstorm development should be in full swing across the Texas Panhandle on late Thursday near the center of the low pressure. A cold front attached to this low will be pushed eastward across our region and provide focus for significant thunderstorm development.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are quite possible anytime between Thursday evening to Friday evening as the low pressure system strengthens. Dallas/Fort Worth will remain in the warm sector for most of this event, which places us in a zone of favorable thunderstorm development. While thunderstorms are quite possible Thursday evening through Friday evening, the main event in D/FW will occur Friday afternoon and evening.

Concerns outlined with the upcoming severe weather event are the standard hail and high winds, while a potential for tornadoes exists too. One other concern not typically observed with thunderstorms of this nature is flash flooding. Conditions may actually be favorable for multiple strong or severe thunderstorms to train over the same locations for hours at a time, leading to a localized flash flooding problem.

For a more advanced look into the upcoming weather, my own personal analysis of computer models shows a few separate instances of thunderstorm explosion. A few weak disturbances in the mid-atmosphere rotate around the jet stream and across the area before the main low pressure system arrives and cold front passes through. The atmosphere will be ripe for convection, so these weak disturbances rotating through should be all that is needed to kick off a few bursts of storms before the main event Friday evening. The first wave of t-storms may be very late evening Thursday, close to midnight.

BUFKIT displaying the NAM model’s forecast Skew-T Profile for Friday 2/3/12 1:00 AM.

The above Skew-T profile shows ample lift in the mid-atmosphere (the white line around 20,000 ft indicates about -10 omega, or rising/lifting air) around 1:00AM Friday morning. CAPE values of around 1000 J/kg with no inhibition and ample moisture throughout the entire profile, and I’d say strong to possibly severe storms are expected. Lapse rates close to 7° C/km should support moderate hail development, and as the storms will be surface based a high wind risk exists too. Hodographs don’t appear ideal, but do show a potential for some tornado development. 0-2 KM shear of about 25kts and helicity of around 200 does indicate tornado development may be possible with some stronger storms, though these values aren’t ideal. Finally lifted index values of around -3° C do indicate a slightly to moderately unstable atmosphere throughout the entire event.

One final advanced analysis of the upcoming weather, flash flooding may actually be a concern with these storms. Storm motion appears to be NNE around 15 mph, but the overall propagation of thunderstorms may be southeastward near 10 mph. This sets up a scenario where multiple thunderstorms may train across the same areas for a few hours at a time, and create flash flooding concerns. Flash flooding may actually be the single most severe weather event out of these upcoming storms, funny enough.

Stay safe everyone, and keep watching the skies the next two days!

Thursday morning rainfall totals

Sean Toner — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 18:19:48 +0000

Some light rain fell across the region late Wednesday and early Thursday morning. Not on par with the deluge of rain we had the night before, but still very beneficial.

Radar estimates about 0.25 inches of rain across most of the metroplex, except north DFW where an estimated 1.5 inches fell.

You can see that CoCoRaHS reports actually verify the radar’s estimated rainfall fairly well. The radar may have even underestimated total rainfall in some areas.

CoCoRaHS.org volunteer network rain reports for the 24-hr period ending 1/26/12 7:00am CST.

The entire region had at least some measurable precipitation the last 24 hours, which is great news for the drought stricken lone star state!

24-hour rainfall totals across north Texas

Sean Toner — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 17:24:51 +0000

Very heavy rainfall fell across the entire region overnight and this morning January 25. Some high water rescues have occurred across the D/FW Metroplex this morning as well. Area wide 2 to 5 inches of rain have fallen with some isolated locations receiving even more.

4.26 inches of rain fell at Dallas/Fort Worth Airport, while 4.49 inches fell at Dallas Love Field. See the complete list of 24-hour preliminary rainfall totals below.

EDIT: Several area lakes rose by several feet due to the widespread heavy rain as well. See below for lake level increases.

Radar estimated storm total rainfall as of 11:00am CST 1/25/12.

...Preliminary 24 hour rainfall totals ending at 11 am...

...Anderson...
psnt2    Palestine crn                        1.97

...Bell...
nelt2    Temple                               2.83
tpl      Temple AWOS                          1.98

...Bosque...
aqlt2    Aquilla                              3.71
vmat2    Valley Mills                         3.15
ctnt2    Clifton                              3.14

...Collin...
ddnt2    Dallas alert 735(preston @ Olive rd) 5.32
prpt2    Prosper                              4.90
dwht2    desert water coop#2                  4.65
mckt2    McKinney                             4.41
tki      McKinney ASOS                        4.31
bvwt2    Blue Ridge                           4.16

...Comanche...
dllt2    deleon                               3.46
dsbt2    deleon                               3.20
coat2    Comanche RAWS                        2.96
mkn      Comanche AWOS                        2.56

...Cooke...
vvwt2    Valley View 4s                       4.23
gllt2    Gainesville                          2.99
gle      Gainsville muncipal                  2.52

...Coryell...

...Dallas...
dcct2    west joe's creek @ Walnut Creek      5.04
Dal      Dallas Love ASOS                     4.49
rbd      Dallas Red Bird ASOS                 4.36
gprt2    Grand Prairie                        4.24
adst2    Addison Airport                      4.07
gpet2    Mountain Creek Lake                  4.03
lnc      Lancaster Airport                    3.72
chit2    Cedar Hill 4ne                       3.72
dalt2    Dallas                               3.66
cdht2    Cedar Hill S.P. RAWS                 3.64
cart2    Carrollton                           3.37

...Delta...
sclt2    jim Chapman Lake                     2.52
copt2    Cooper                               2.41

...Denton...
dcjt2    Justin                               4.21
sget2    Sanger                               3.98
dto      Denton ASOS                          3.49
eflt2    Lewisville                           3.19
rrlt2    lake ray Roberts                     3.01

...Eastland...
llet2    Lake Leon                            2.87

...Ellis...
lwwt2    Lake Waxahachie                      4.45
avat2    Avalon #2 larc                       3.49
jwy      mid-way regional ap                  3.36

...Erath...
Sep     Stephenville                          4.18

...Falls...
hibt2    Highbank                             2.27

...Fannin...
ladt2    Ladonia                              3.49
cddt2    Caddo wildlife mngt                  2.91

...Freestone...
stet2    Streetman                            2.88

...Grayson...
covt2    Collinsville                         4.80
gyi      Sherman/Denison ap                   3.91
cvet2    Collinsville                         3.28

...Hamilton...
hict2    Hico                                 4.02
hmlt2    Hamilton                             2.33

...Henderson...
tddt2    Trinidad                             2.29
rhat2    Athens RAWS                          2.19

...Hill...
bbdt2    Brandon                              4.78
bumt2    Blum                                 4.33
inj      Hillsboro Airport                    3.60
aqat2    Aquilla creek blw dam                2.88
alat2    Aquilla lake                         2.53
mlet2    Malone                               2.21

...Hood...
gryt2    Granbury RAWS                        5.13
gdj      Granbury Municipal ap                4.61

...Hopkins...
subt2    Sulphur Bluff                        2.36

...Hunt...
lvtt2    Celeste                              4.49
msct2    Commerce                             2.99
scst2    Commerce                             2.82
gelt2    Greenville RAWS                      2.62
gvt      Greenville Airport                   2.56
gnvt2    Greenville                           2.34

...Jack...
tbmt2    bear mtn reptr (post office)         2.79
jakt2    Jacksboro                            2.60
tant2    Antelope                             2.38
tvtt2    Truce                                2.14

...Johnson...
vnst2    Venus                                4.01
cpt      Cleburne municpal ap                 2.98

...Kaufman...
cnlt2    Crandall                             3.74
kaft2    Kaufman                              2.62
trl      Terrell ASOS                         2.26

...Lamar...
myst2    pat mayse dam                        2.81
prx      Paris AWOS                           2.76
roxt2    Roxton                               2.70
cppt2    Cooper                               2.61

...Lampasas...
ltct2    Lometa                               2.22
nnxt2    Lampasas                             2.03
lmot2    Lometa                               2.00

...Limestone...
grst2    Groesbeck                            2.95
llmt2    lake Limestone Marin                 2.13

...Leon...
llst2    lake Limestone                       2.11

...McLennan...
mcgt2    McGregor                             3.01
act      Waco ASOS                            2.87
crft2    Crawford                             2.81
megt2    McGregor RAWS                        2.64

...Milam...
tdct2    Thorndale                            3.30
cmnt2    Cameron                              2.42

...Mills...
gect2    Goldthwaite                          2.57

...Montague...
mgut2    Montague                             3.03
bcat2    lake amon Carter                     2.38
0f2      Bowie                                2.37

...Navarro...
crs      Corsicana ASOS                       3.04
trht2    Richland                             2.33
rcet2    Rice                                 2.28

...Parker...
weat2    Weatherford                          4.15
bnct2    Cresson                              4.05
twrt2    Springtown (walnut c                 3.98
dnnt2    Dennis                               3.85
wtht2    Weatherford                          3.62
tagt2    Agnes                                2.11

...Robertson...
lhb      Hearne Airport                       2.46
rprt2    Round Prairie RAWS                   2.15

...Stephens...
bkd      Breckenridge AWOS                    1.76

...Somervell...
glrt2    Glen Rose                            3.65
grot2    Glen Rose                            3.30

...Tarrant...
eamt2    Eagle Mountain Lake                  4.53
mnft2    Mansfield                            4.49
gky      Arlington ASOS                       4.28
dfw      Dallas/Fort Worth ap                 4.26
bcht2    Fort Worth                           4.17
fwdt2    NWS Fort Worth                       4.10
nfw      ftw joint Reserve base               3.91
afw      ftw Alliance ASOS                    3.90
ftw      ftw Meacham ASOS                     3.84
fwot2    Fort Worth                           3.75
wftt2    Fort Worth                           3.73
ermt2    Everman                              3.73
gpnt2    Grapevine dam wx sta                 3.65
bnbt2    lake Benbrook                        3.61
fwht2    Fort Worth                           3.59
wrpt2    Fort Worth federal bldg              3.53
twft2    trwd sump 13                         3.43
tcet2    Cement Lake                          3.19
bmct2    marys creek                          3.19
tctt2    trwd sump 17                         3.15
twvt2    trwd sump 3                          3.08
tmct2    marine Creek Lake                    2.99
flwt2    Lake Worth                           2.79
cfbt2    Benbrook                             2.64

...Wise...
boyt2    Boyd                                 3.86
lud      Decatur Municipal ap                 3.07
avot2    Alvord 4ne                           3.07
lbjt2    LBJ Grasslands RAWS                  2.88
tsat2    Paradise (salt creek)                2.82
tcft2    Crafton                              2.70
tbnt2    Boonsville                           2.59

...Young...
lmgt2    Lake Graham                          2.93
sout2    South Bend                           2.63

          ....North Texas lakes are on the rise...

The widespread heavy event of the past 24 hours has brought some
significant recharge to the lakes in North Texas. Rainfall totals
averaged 3 to 5 inches across the area from midday Tuesday through
noon Wednesday. 

Lake                Lake elevation gain through 3pm Wednesday

Grapevine           3.1 feet
Lewisville          1.8 feet
Joe pool            2.7 feet
Lavon               2.5 feet
ray Hubbard         1.4 feet
ray Roberts         1.5 feet
Arlington           5.4 feet
Eagle Mountain      2.2 feet
Bridgeport          1.3 feet
possum kingdom      1.2 feet
Granbury            3.6 feet
Bardwell            2.2 feet
Richland Chambers   0.5 feet
Cedar Creek         0.5 feet
Whitney             1.5 feet

Heavy rain for north Texas this week

Sean Toner — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 01:32:06 +0000

North Texas looks set to receive several inches of rain this upcoming week, helping provide additional relief to our long term drought. Most major computer models are showing a multi-day heavy rain event bringing upwards of 3 inches of rain area-wide. Some embedded thunderstorms are possible as well, presenting a slight hail risk.

The rain will start Tuesday 1/24 in the early afternoon as a weak front slides by and stalls just south of the region. Elevated CAPE values around 500 J/kg with no CIN to inhibit storm growth, plus mid-level lapse rates near 7 degrees C/km should allow the production of hail with some stronger t-storms. Thunderstorms will likely be scattered and embedded within the overall wide-spread rain, but an isolated severe t-storm is possible.

Forecast NAM model Skew-T chart for Tuesday Jan 24 8:00pm CST. Red line is temp, green line is dew point. White line is ‘Omega’, indicating rising or sinking air. Thin yellow line indicates CAPE. This chart shows an almost fully saturated atmosphere below 17,000ft with plenty of rising air, and 534 J/kg of CAPE with almost zero inhibition from about 3,000 ft.

The heavy rain will continue overnight into Wednesday morning. Some additional thunderstorm development is possible early Wednesday morning around or just before sunrise, but these storms wouldn’t be strong or severe.

Expect the Wednesday morning drive to be difficult as very heavy rain combines with urban street flooding. A flash flood watch or warning wouldn’t be surprising to see on Wednesday. The heaviest rain will ease late afternoon Wednesday.

The rain will likely continue as light sprinkles or scattered rain showers until Thursday afternoon when it will likely end.

Forecast NAM model precipitation per hour, and precipitation total. Heaviest rainfall appears likely during the daytime Wednesday 1/25. Time progresses from right to left.

Forecast NAM model 96-hr total rainfall, from 1/23 12:00pm CST to 1/27 12:oopm CST. North Texas looks set to receive very heavy rain, in the 2-4 inch range.

A widespread rain like this may actually bring parts of north central Texas out of any official drought category, and help relieve a large portion of central Texas’ extreme drought conditions. Widespread rain like this is encouraging, signs that the brutal back to back La Nina winter seasons may finally be reaching an end.

Radar estimated rainfall for our weekend drenching

Sean Toner — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 07:00:35 +0000

Rainfall forecasts for this heavy rain event were extraordinarily accurate even 5 days out! Areas west of I-35 received 4-8 inches of rainfall, while a very sharp decrease in total rainfall exists east of I-35. Some areas in western north Texas even received 9 inches of rainfall. DFW Airport appears to have received about 1.5 inches.

Storm total rainfall for this event, through 10/10/11 1:52am CDT.

Storm total rainfall, zoomed in on the DFW Metroplex.

EDIT:
The National Weather Service has a comprehensive list of rainfall observations from around north Texas, sorted from highest to lowest. DFW Airport received 1.43 inches of rainfall.

...PRELIMINARY 48 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS ENDING AT 7 AM...

HERE ARE THE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS RECORDED ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS FROM HEAVY RAINS THAT AFFECTED THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
THESE TOTALS ARE AS OF 7 AM CDT TODAY...MONDAY OCTOBER 10TH.

LOCATION                              RAINFALL /INCHES/
=======================================================
COET2    COMANCHE                             8.35
COAT2    COMANCHE RAWS                        8.32

GOLT2    GOLDTHWAITE 1WSW                     6.40
SOUT2    SOUTH BEND                           6.22
MNMT2    MORGAN MILL                          6.10
DBNT2    DUBLIN                               6.10

JSBT2    JACKSBORO                            6.00
DSBT2    DELEON                               6.00
SEPT2    STEPHENVILLE 1N                      5.93
SWNT2    STRAWN 8NNE                          5.90

ACT      WACO ASOS                            5.83
BZOT2    BRAZOS                               5.70
MWLT2    MINERAL WELLS 1SSW                   5.59
GLRT2    GLEN ROSE                            5.58

BNCT2    CRESSON                              5.56
SGTT2    SPRINGTOWN 4S                        5.33
DLLT2    DELEON                               5.30
BPRT2    LAKE BRIDGEPORT                      5.30

LMGT2    LAKE GRAHAM                          5.27
WTHT2    WEATHERFORD                          5.15
LIPT2    LIPAN                                5.15
KEMT2    KEMPNER                              5.14

AQLT2    AQUILLA                              5.12
GRYT2    GRANBURY RAWS                        5.07
PCTT2    PROCTOR LAKE                         5.05
BRET2    BRECKENRIDGE                         5.03

ACTT2    WACO LAKE                            5.02
LLET2    LAKE LEON                            5.01
GECT2    GOLDTHWAITE                          5.00
GRNT2    GRANBURY                             4.93

CSNT2    CRESSON                              4.93
GDOT2    GORDON 1SW                           4.88
BTAT2    BONITA 4NW                           4.83
HICT2    HICO                                 4.80

BCAT2    LAKE AMON CARTER                     4.76
PKLT2    POSSUM KINGDOM RAWS                  4.73
AQAT2    AQUILLA CREEK BLW DA                 4.73
GROT2    GLEN ROSE                            4.66

BUMT2    BLUM                                 4.66
RMDT2    LAKE WORTH 13WSW (RE                 4.42
FBTT2    FORESTBURG 5S                        4.41
NFW      FTW JOINT RESERVE BA                 4.39

TROT2    TRWD SUMP 12                         4.38
JAKT2    JACKSBORO                            4.37
MGUT2    MONTAGUE                             4.31
BNBT2    LAKE BENBROOK                        4.29

TCTT2    TRWD SUMP 17                         4.28
LTCT2    LOMETA                               4.27
FBGT2    FORT WORTH BOTANIC G                 4.25
TANT2    ANTELOPE                             4.24

ZZET2    FORT WORTH                           4.18
LBJT2    LBJ GRASSLANDS RAWS                  4.18
AVOT2    ALVORD 4NE                           4.14
LWJT2    FORT WORTH ALERT 103                 4.13

TBNT2    BOONSVILLE                           4.11
PLOT2    PALO PINTO                           4.10
DNNT2    DENNIS                               4.07
WFTT2    FORT WORTH                           4.05

FBUT2    FORT WORTH ALERT 400                 4.05
ALAT2    AQUILLA LAKE                         4.05
GAET2    GATESVILLE                           4.00
WEAT2    WEATHERFORD                          3.97

FDBT2    FORT WORTH ALERT 120                 3.94
VMAT2    VALLEY MILLS                         3.93
LMPT2    LAMPASAS 11 WNW                      3.84
JFBT2    SPRINGTOWN 4NE                       3.84

TWFT2    TRWD SUMP 13                         3.83
BKD      BRECKENRIDGE AWOS                    3.82
TBCT2    ALVORD (BRUSHY CREEK                 3.78
BRPT2    BRIDGEPORT                           3.75

FWHT2    FORT WORTH                           3.72
CNFT2    CRANFILLS GAP                        3.69
ERMT2    EVERMAN                              3.68
TVTT2    TRUCE                                3.64

TWRT2    SPRINGTOWN (WALNUT C                 3.63
BMCT2    MARYS CREEK                          3.61
LUD      DECATUR MUNICIPAL AP                 3.59
FLWT2    LAKE WORTH                           3.57

FCMT2    FORT WORTH ALERT 800                 3.54
TAGT2    AGNES                                3.50
MGNT2    MORGAN                               3.50
TCDT2    COTTONDALE                           3.49

LMOT2    LOMETA                               3.49
FEVT2    FORT WORTH ALERT 190                 3.42
TWVT2    TRWD SUMP 3                          3.37
TBMT2    BEAR MTN REPTR (POST                 3.36

FVCT2    FORT WORTH ALERT 900                 3.35
CWFT2    CRAWFORD                             3.30
DCJT2    JUSTIN                               3.28
BOYT2    BOYD                                 3.28

EAMT2    EAGLE MOUNTAIN LAKE                  3.26
FMAT2    FORT WORTH ALERT 600                 3.23
TGCT2    GARRETT CREEK RANCH                  3.20
FWOT2    FORT WORTH                           3.17

HCLT2    HUBBARD CREEK RESERV                 3.13
VVWT2    VALLEY VIEW 4S                       3.10
MUTT2    MUENSTER                             3.07
FHRT2    FORT WORTH ALERT 140                 3.07

HMLT2    HAMILTON                             3.05
NNXT2    LAMPASAS                             3.02
CLET2    CLEBURNE                             3.00
BCHT2    FORT WORTH                           2.98

FWNT2    FORT WORTH NATURE CE                 2.97
STIT2    STILLHOUSE HOLLOW                    2.96
MEGT2    MCGREGOR RAWS                        2.95
GBYT2    LAKE GRANBURY                        2.92

BLNT2    BELTON LAKE                          2.88
FPHT2    FORT WORTH ALERT 170                 2.87
ZZGT2    KELLER                               2.86
CFBT2    BENBROOK                             2.86

WRPT2    FORT WORTH FEDERAL B                 2.83
FWDT2    NWS FORT WORTH                       2.83
FFST2    FORT WORTH ALERT 102                 2.83
TMST2    FORT WORTH ALERT 101                 2.79

TCET2    CEMENT LAKE                          2.75
GAIT2    GAINESVILLE 1N                       2.69
NRHT2    NORTH RICHLAND HILLS                 2.68
BRIT2    BRIDGEPORT                           2.58

SGET2    SANGER                               2.57
FTCT2    FORT WORTH ALERT 130                 2.56
GUNT2    GUNTER                               2.54
ZZAT2    KELLER                               2.53

KIET2    KILLEEN                              2.49
FRMT2    FORT WORTH ALERT 150                 2.44
FDAT2    FORT WORTH ALERT 110                 2.44
MCGT2    MCGREGOR                             2.43

FTET2    FORT WORTH ALERT 300                 2.36
AFW      FTW ALLIANCE ASOS                    2.36
VNST2    VENUS                                2.35
GSCT2    GRAND PRAIRIE ALERT                  2.32

PICT2    PIDCOKE                              2.29
CMPT2    COLLEYVILLE                          2.28
GSOT2    GRAND PRAIRIE ALERT                  2.25
SHET2    SHERMAN                              2.24

DBJT2    DALLAS ALERT 175                     2.21
COVT2    COLLINSVILLE                         2.21
MNFT2    MANSFIELD                            2.20
HBOT2    HILLSBORO                            2.20

GTBT2    GRAND PRAIRIE ALERT                  2.17
DTO      DENTON ASOS                          2.16
CVET2    COLLINSVILLE                         2.16
HLR      FORT HOOD AAF                        2.14

FTBT2    FORT WORTH ALERT 200                 2.13
YOUT2    YOUNGSPORT                           2.12
GLLT2    GAINESVILLE                          2.11
GRK      ROBERT GRAY AP                       2.05

GPRT2    GRAND PRAIRIE                        2.04
GKY      ARLINGTON ASOS                       2.02
GAST2    GATESVILLE                           2.01
MNZ      HAMILTON AWOS                        1.97

GWHT2    GRAND PRAIRIE ALERT                  1.93
MKN      COMANCHE AWOS                        1.91
ROAT2    ROANOKE                              1.90
FPLT2    FORT WORTH ALERT 100                 1.89

TMCT2    MARINE CREEK LAKE                    1.88
MNTT2    MUENSTER                             1.84
FWS      FORT WORTH SPINKS AP                 1.84
TJOT2    JOPLIN                               1.83

DDIT2    DALLAS ALERT 129                     1.81
CPT      CLEBURNE MUNICPAL AP                 1.81
DTNT2    DENTON 2SE                           1.77
DAMT2    DALLAS ALERT 453                     1.77

GPVT2    LAKE GRAPEVINE                       1.76
CRFT2    CRAWFORD                             1.72
DDHT2    DALLAS ALERT 115                     1.69
PRPT2    PROSPER                              1.68

RPH      GRAHAM MUNICIPAL AP                  1.67
CDHT2    CEDAR HILL S.P. RAWS                 1.67
RBD      DALLAS RED BIRD ASOS                 1.65
DBTT2    DALLAS ALERT 91                      1.62

DAIT2    DALLAS ALERT 703                     1.62
DCCT2    DALLAS ALERT 109                     1.58
WAXT2    WAXAHACHIE                           1.55
TMPT2    TEMPLE RAWS                          1.55

GPNT2    GRAPEVINE DAM WX STA                 1.54
MCKT2    MCKINNEY                             1.50
GDJ      GRANBURY MUNICIPAL A                 1.50
BBDT2    BRANDON                              1.47

TBWT2    LAKE BRIDGEPORT REPE                 1.45
DAVT2    DAVILLA                              1.45
RSBT2    ROSEBUD                              1.43
DFW      DALLAS/FORT WORTH AP                 1.43

GPBT2    GRAND PRAIRIE ALERT                  1.41
CTNT2    CLIFTON                              1.41
ITAT2    ITASCA                               1.40
DAFT2    DALLAS ALERT 529                     1.38

JPLT2    LAKE JOE POOL                        1.37
TKI      MCKINNEY ASOS                        1.35
THDT2    THORNDALE                            1.32
DCXT2    DALLAS ALERT 413                     1.30

DBLT2    DALLAS ALERT 153                     1.30
LRIT2    LITTLE RIVER                         1.26
DDJT2    DALLAS ALERT 165                     1.26
0F2      BOWIE                                1.26

DDKT2    DALLAS ALERT 171                     1.22
DAKT2    DALLAS ALERT 671                     1.22
TDCT2    THORNDALE                            1.20
MLOT2    MIDLOTHIAN #2                        1.20

DALT2    DALLAS                               1.20
DDGT2    DALLAS ALERT 107                     1.18
DDCT2    DALLAS ALERT 485                     1.18
DCRT2    DALLAS ALERT 613                     1.18

DBIT2    DALLAS ALERT 195                     1.18
DBDT2    DALLAS ALERT 523                     1.18
DABT2    DALLAS ALERT 415                     1.18
DAQT2    DALLAS ALERT 451                     1.15

CART2    CARROLLTON                           1.15
DAYT2    DALLAS ALERT 305                     1.14
DBGT2    DALLAS ALERT 623                     1.11
RRLT2    LAKE RAY ROBERTS                     1.10

GPET2    MOUNTAIN CREEK LAKE                  1.10
LWWT2    LAKE WAXAHACHIE                      1.07
DDMT2    DALLAS ALERT 504                     1.07
DWRT2    WHITE ROCK CREEK AT                  1.06

DWCT2    DALLAS ALERT 205                     1.06
DDOT2    DALLAS ALERT 745                     1.06
DCTT2    DALLAS ALERT 151 @ W                 1.06
DAZT2    DALLAS ALERT 553                     1.06

DAXT2    DALLAS ALERT 772                     1.06
PWG      MCGREGOR MUNICPAL AP                 1.05
AQUT2    AQUILLA 1SSE                         1.05
LVNT2    LAKE LAVON                           1.04

XBP      BRIDGEPORT MUNICIPAL                 1.03
DDDT2    DALLAS ALERT 635                     1.02
DBOT2    DALLAS ALERT 551                     1.02
ALRT2    ALVARADO 2NNW                        1.00

Heavy rain event for north Texas begins today

Sean Toner — Sat, 08 Oct 2011 17:18:19 +0000

Current forecasts have been tweaked slightly, but the overall expected pattern has not changed much the last several days. Areas west of I-35 are expected to receive the heaviest rainfall from this 3 day event, with 4-8 inches expected. Areas within the Metroplex are likely to see about 0.5 to 1 inch, with isolated pockets in the 1 to 2 inch range. Areas east of DFW will receive only light rainfall around 1/4 an inch.

Timing on this event has been very well forecast for the last several days, and remains the same. Best chances of rainfall will occur for DFW after sunset, overnight and most of the day Sunday. Rainfall may still be occurring even through Monday morning at sunrise, as this upper level energy slowly pushes through the region.

I don’t anticipate any severe weather from this event myself, the National Weather Service has indicated that perhaps an isolated strong to severe storm may develop however. So if anyone in DFW has outdoor weekend plans, Saturday before sunset will be the best and only time to do them.

Heavy rain event still expected in DFW this weekend

Sean Toner — Wed, 05 Oct 2011 19:57:17 +0000

The very powerful early season winter storm currently affecting the western US, and bringing snow to higher elevations, is still expected to bring wide spread heavy rainfall to north Texas this weekend. The GFS model has consistently shown a multi-day heavy rain event to affect our entire region starting this weekend, and stretching through at least Monday morning 10/10 of next week.

GFS Model as of 10/5/11 12:00Z , 96-hour estimated precipitation for: 10/8/11 through 10/12/11.

Heavy rainfall now appears likely to begin perhaps mid-day Saturday, occurring intermittently or perhaps even continuously for the region through Sunday.

For Saturday, best and heaviest rain chances will exist for areas west of I-35. Sunday, nearly the entire region will be subject to heavy rainfall. Monday and Tuesday look to have only scattered or isolated rain showers for areas east of I-35. The immediate D/FW Metroplex should remain rain free after Monday mid-day.

Wind shear profiles, hodographs, and instability look too weak to support any organized severe threat for our region on any day. I wouldn’t rule out an embedded thunderstorm however, but I don’t expect any to be severe.

GFS Model initialized 10/5/11 12:00z, showing the forecasted Skew-T chart for 10/9/11 18:00Z.

Looking at the Skew-T chart I referenced above, the dew point and the temperature are the same throughout about 600mb to 200mb, then again in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere. This tells me to expect completely overcast skies and rain. Storm motion will be moving from S or SSW to N or NNE across the region.

This heavy rain event won’t break our drought by a long shot, but it might be enough to positively affect it. Soil in our region is so incredibly dry, that even very heavy rain concentrated on a small area may still be absorbed well by the soil and generate little runoff.

October is north Texas’ 2nd rainiest month of the year, so lets hope this gets us off on a positive start to drought recovery!

Preliminary rainfall totals from 9/18/11

Sean Toner — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 22:12:04 +0000

Here are some preliminary rainfall totals from the afternoon and evening storms we had Sunday 9/18/11. Nowhere near enough to break or even dent the drought, but still it is a good start. First, I attached radar estimated rainfall.

Radar estimated precipitation for all of north Texas.

Zoomed inview for the immediate D/FW Metroplex.

Location                              rainfall /inches/
==============================
=========================
cvlt2    Centerville                          3.25
avat2    Avalon #2 larc                       2.79
csat2    Corsicana                            2.40
llmt2    lake Limestone Marin                 2.38

Dckt2    Dallas alert 307                     2.33
mypt2    Maypearl                             2.18
dwct2    Dallas alert 205                     2.13
act      Waco ASOS                            2.13

Aqlt2    Aquilla                              2.06
waxt2    Waxahachie                           2.00
rcet2    Rice                                 2.00
ddct2    Dallas alert 485                     1.92

Subt2    Sulphur Bluff                        1.89
dwht2    desert water coop#2                  1.88
aqut2    Aquilla 1sse                         1.87
crs      Corsicana ASOS                       1.81

Ddkt2    Dallas alert 171                     1.77
dbjt2    Dallas alert 175                     1.74
dwht2    desert water coop#2                  1.71
ddjt2    Dallas alert 165                     1.69

Ddmt2    Dallas alert 504                     1.66
gect2    Goldthwaite                          1.61
grst2    Groesbeck                            1.58
pwg      McGregor municpal ap                 1.55

Dddt2    Dallas alert 635                     1.54
dadt2    Dallas alert 255                     1.50
dabt2    Dallas alert 415                     1.50
mbkt2    Mabank 4sw                           1.47

Mrlt2    Marlin 3ne                           1.45
rprt2    Round Prairie RAWS                   1.41
dcrt2    Dallas alert 613                     1.41
tki      McKinney ASOS                        1.36

Llst2    lake Limestone                       1.36
dalt2    Dallas                               1.36
ddit2    Dallas alert 129                     1.33
mckt2    McKinney                             1.29

Dayt2    Dallas alert 305                     1.26
alat2    Aquilla lake                         1.26
kaft2    Kaufman                              1.23
ddlt2    Dallas alert 377                     1.23

Dbgt2    Dallas alert 623                     1.22
damt2    Dallas alert 453                     1.22
gelt2    Greenville RAWS                      1.18
cwft2    Crawford                             1.17

Chit2    Cedar Hill 4ne                       1.17
bvwt2    Blue Ridge                           1.17
aqat2    Aquilla creek blw da                 1.16
actt2    Waco Lake                            1.16

Dcxt2    Dallas alert 413                     1.14
dbst2    Dallas alert 253                     1.14
mcgt2    McGregor                             1.13
fest2    Freestone 5sw                        1.10

Dcet2    Dallas alert 308                     1.10
daqt2    Dallas alert 451                     1.10
hibt2    Highbank                             1.09
vmat2    Valley Mills                         1.06

Dbdt2    Dallas alert 523                     1.06
east2    easterly                             1.04
bdwt2    Bardwell Lake                        1.03
lhb      Hearne Airport                       1.00

Dajt2    Dallas alert 185                     0.99
tddt2    Trinidad                             0.96
stet2    Streetman                            0.96
cnlt2    Crandall                             0.96

Lolt2    Long Lake                            0.92
scst2    Commerce                             0.89
dazt2    Dallas alert 553                     0.87
dakt2    Dallas alert 671                     0.87

Wlpt2    Wills Point                          0.86
lwwt2    Lake Waxahachie                      0.84
lvnt2    lake Lavon                           0.84
daot2    Dallas alert 455                     0.83

Daft2    Dallas alert 529                     0.82
dbit2    Dallas alert 195                     0.79
cdht2    Cedar Hill S.P. RAWS                 0.78
trl      Terrell ASOS                         0.76

Sclt2    jim Chapman Lake (co                 0.75
mlot2    Midlothian #2                        0.73
ctnt2    Clifton                              0.72
ddht2    Dallas alert 115                     0.67

Dbbt2    Dallas alert 677                     0.63
dbat2    Dallas alert 505                     0.63
dawt2    Navarro Mills Lake                   0.62
gvlt2    Greenville kgvl                      0.61

Bumt2    Blum                                 0.61
rsrt2    Rosser                               0.60
rhat2    Athens RAWS                          0.59
psnt2    Palestine crn                        0.59

Aplt2    Palestine RAWS                       0.59
lvtt2    Celeste                              0.58
dcpt2    Dallas alert 15                      0.55
prpt2    Prosper                              0.54

Copt2    Cooper                               0.54
hngt2    Honey Grove                          0.47
gky      Arlington ASOS                       0.46
jplt2    Lake Joe pool                        0.45

Dcnt2    Dallas alert 647                     0.44
rbd      Dallas Red Bird ASOS                 0.41
dbkt2    Dallas alert 689                     0.40
dczt2    Dallas alert 777                     0.39

Hqz      Mesquite Metro airpo                 0.38
gait2    Gainesville 1n                       0.37
gnvt2    Greenville                           0.36
bbdt2    Brandon                              0.35

Gtbt2    Grand Prairie alert                  0.31
lrit2    Little River                         0.30
bnmt2    Bonham 3nne                          0.30
mlet2    Malone                               0.29

Gpbt2    Grand Prairie alert                  0.28
psn      Palestine Municipal                  0.27
megt2    McGregor RAWS                        0.27
lmot2    Lometa                               0.27

Dwrt2    White Rock creek at                  0.27
dsbt2    deleon                               0.27
prx      Paris AWOS                           0.25
mlet2    Malone                               0.25

Gvt      Greenville Airport                   0.25

Preliminary rainfall totals from around north Texas

Sean Toner — Sun, 14 Aug 2011 17:14:23 +0000

Our early morning rainfall was very much welcomed by all of north Texas, but not anywhere near enough to break or even dent our long standing drought. DFW Airport only received 0.86 inches of rain unfortunately. Below are totals from the rest of north Texas:

Location                              rainfall /inches/
=======================================================
mnmt2    Morgan Mill                          4.71
sept2    Stephenville 1n                      3.94
dsbt2    deleon                               3.72

Gdot2    Gordon 1sw                           2.86
gpbt2    Grand Prairie alert                  2.76
mwlt2    Mineral Wells 1ssw                   2.73
lipt2    Lipan                                2.73

Swnt2    Strawn 8nne                          2.70
gprt2    Grand Prairie                        2.55
gtbt2    Grand Prairie alert                  2.52
bzot2    Brazos                               2.44

Lmgt2    Lake Graham                          2.39
bkd      Breckenridge AWOS                    2.33
rmdt2    Lake Worth 13wsw (remuda)            2.30
fcmt2    Fort Worth alert 800                 2.25

Sout2    South Bend                           2.20
coat2    Comanche RAWS                        2.19
dllt2    deleon                               2.13
llet2    Lake Leon                            2.12

Ddot2    Dallas alert 745                     2.08
pctt2    Proctor Lake                         2.04
mwl      Mineral Wells ASOS                   2.00
ddpt2    Dallas alert 795                     1.97

Dnnt2    Dennis                               1.94
weat2    Weatherford                          1.82
dbnt2    Dublin                               1.82
pctt2    Proctor Lake                         1.81

Dait2    Dallas alert 703                     1.81
roat2    Roanoke                              1.80
fwnt2    Fort Worth nature center             1.80
eamt2    Eagle Mountain Lake                  1.79

Ghmt2    Graham                               1.70
dagt2    Dallas alert 650                     1.65
gryt2    Granbury RAWS                        1.60
zzgt2    Keller                               1.59

Lwjt2    Fort Worth alert 103                 1.57
dto      Denton ASOS                          1.56
hclt2    Hubbard Creek reservior              1.49
eflt2    Lewisville                           1.41

Ddnt2    Dallas alert 735                     1.38
afw      ftw Alliance ASOS                    1.36
psmt2    Possum Kingdom Lake                  1.35
tmst2    Fort Worth alert 101                 1.34

Plot2    Palo Pinto                           1.29
nfw      ftw joint Reserve base               1.29
gwht2    Grand Prairie alert                  1.26
gsct2    Grand Prairie alert                  1.26

Dbvt2    Dallas alert 683                     1.26
pklt2    possum kingdom RAWS                  1.24
daxt2    Dallas alert 772                     1.15
pklt2    possum kingdom RAWS                  1.12

Lewt2    Lake Lewisville                      1.10
gbyt2    Lake Granbury                        1.10
prpt2    Prosper                              1.07
gsot2    Grand Prairie alert                  1.07

Gryt2    Granbury RAWS                        1.00
rph      Graham Municipal ap                  0.98
dcct2    Dallas alert 109                     0.98
dakt2    Dallas alert 671                     0.98

Wtht2    Weatherford                          0.97
hict2    Hico                                 0.97
glrt2    Glen Rose                            0.94
cart2    Carrollton                           0.94

Dal      Dallas Love ASOS                     0.93
hmlt2    Hamilton                             0.91
scst2    Commerce                             0.88
sget2    Sanger                               0.87

Dfw      Dallas/Fort Worth ap                 0.86
dcnt2    Dallas alert 647                     0.86
grot2    Glen Rose                            0.84
sget2    Sanger                               0.83

Jsbt2    Jacksboro                            0.83
gpvt2    lake Grapevine                       0.83
boyt2    Boyd                                 0.83
bnct2    Cresson                              0.83

Gpvt2    lake Grapevine                       0.82
cmtt2    Chalk Mountain                       0.80
gvlt2    Greenville kgvl                      0.79
grnt2    Granbury                             0.79

Ftw      ftw Meacham ASOS                     0.79
dbpt2    Dallas alert 753                     0.79
csnt2    Cresson                              0.79
bnct2    Cresson                              0.79

Msct2    Commerce                             0.76
ffst2    Fort Worth alert 102                 0.75
dbot2    Dallas alert 551                     0.75
daft2    Dallas alert 529                     0.75

Dbdt2    Dallas alert 523                     0.74
gpnt2    Grapevine dam wx sta                 0.73
dalt2    Dallas                               0.73
roxt2    Roxton                               0.72

Dbrt2    Dallas alert 685                     0.70
fwot2    Fort Worth                           0.68
zzat2    Keller                               0.67
dbbt2    Dallas alert 677                     0.67

Gunt2    Gunter                               0.65
bmct2    marys creek                          0.64
flwt2    Lake Worth                           0.63
adst2    Addison Airport                      0.63

Bnbt2    lake Benbrook                        0.61
fwdt2    NWS Fort Worth                       0.59
dddt2    Dallas alert 635                     0.59
dcjt2    Justin                               0.57

Ads      Addison ASOS                         0.53
hngt2    Honey Grove                          0.51
ftct2    Fort Worth alert 130                 0.51
frmt2    Fort Worth alert 150                 0.51

Wtft2    Weatherford                          0.50
brit2    Bridgeport                           0.50
dcjt2    Justin                               0.49
covt2    Collinsville                         0.48

Shet2    Sherman                              0.47
pict2    Pidcoke                              0.47
ftet2    Fort Worth alert 300                 0.47
fmat2    Fort Worth alert 600                 0.47

Dtnt2    Denton 2se                           0.44
ftbt2    Fort Worth alert 200                 0.43
dbwt2    Dallas alert 19                      0.43
zzet2    Fort Worth                           0.42

Alrt2    Alvarado 2nnw                        0.42
sgtt2    Springtown 4s                        0.41
waxt2    Waxahachie                           0.40
rbd      Dallas Red Bird ASOS                 0.40

Fbgt2    Fort Worth botanic g                 0.40
ddgt2    Dallas alert 107                     0.40
dbkt2    Dallas alert 689                     0.40
cddt2    Caddo wildlife mngt                  0.40

Wftt2    Fort Worth                           0.39
ehst2    Evant High School                    0.39
lmot2    Lometa                               0.38
fwht2    Fort Worth                           0.37

Copt2    Cooper                               0.37
fhrt2    Fort Worth alert 140                 0.36
cfbt2    Benbrook                             0.36
sclt2    jim Chapman Lake                     0.35

Nrht2    North Richland Hills                 0.35
fvct2    Fort Worth alert 900                 0.35
fpht2    Fort Worth alert 170                 0.35
fevt2    Fort Worth alert 190                 0.35

Dcrt2    Dallas alert 613                     0.35
datt2    Dallas alert 773                     0.35
mkn      Comanche AWOS                        0.34
gpet2    Mountain Creek Lake                  0.34

Ermt2    Everman                              0.34
gdj      Granbury Municipal a                 0.33
fdbt2    Fort Worth alert 120                 0.32
cmpt2    Colleyville                          0.32

Sclt2    jim Chapman Lake (co                 0.31
gky      Arlington ASOS                       0.31
fplt2    Fort Worth alert 100                 0.31
fbut2    Fort Worth alert 400                 0.31

Dajt2    Dallas alert 185                     0.31
daht2    Dallas alert 775                     0.31
bprt2    Lake Bridgeport                      0.31
vvwt2    Valley View 4s                       0.30

Vnst2    Venus                                0.30
tki      McKinney ASOS                        0.30
dect2    Decatur                              0.30
bcht2    Fort Worth                           0.29

Wlpt2    Wills Point                          0.28
jakt2    Jacksboro                            0.28
ddjt2    Dallas alert 165                     0.28
mckt2    McKinney                             0.27

Gpm      Grand Prairie munici                 0.27
cpt      Cleburne municpal ap                 0.26
rrlt2    lake ray Roberts                     0.25

Record rainfall at DFW Airport

Sean Toner — Tue, 21 Jun 2011 21:42:33 +0000

Record rainfall occurred at D/FW Airport for the day of 6/21/11. Widespread heavy rainfall affected the rest of the region early this morning as well.

...Record daily maximum rainfall set at Dallas Fort Worth...

 a record rainfall of 2.72 inches was set at Dallas Fort Worth
today. This breaks the old record of 1.07 set in 1926.

...Preliminary 24 hour rainfall totals ending at 1 PM...

Location                              rainfall /inches/
=======================================================
gpvt2    lake Grapevine                       3.27
avot2    Alvord 4ne                           3.25
cnlt2    Crandall                             3.11
gpnt2    Grapevine dam wx station             2.95

Dal      Dallas Love ASOS                     2.78
dalt2    Dallas                               2.76
dfw      Dallas/Fort Worth ap                 2.72
fbtt2    Forestburg 5s                        2.42

Bprt2    Lake Bridgeport                      2.28
lbjt2    LBJ Grasslands RAWS                  2.27
cmpt2    Colleyville                          2.20
trl      Terrell ASOS                         2.16

Cart2    Carrollton                           2.14
kaft2    Kaufman                              2.00
jsbt2    Jacksboro                            1.95
mbkt2    Mabank 4sw                           1.90

Tbct2    Alvord (brushy creek)                1.84
fwdt2    NWS Fort Worth                       1.83
twrt2    Springtown (walnut creek)            1.82
eamt2    Eagle Mountain Lake                  1.80

Dto      Denton ASOS                          1.73
gprt2    Grand Prairie                        1.72
rbd      Dallas Red Bird ASOS                 1.65
afw      ftw Alliance ASOS                    1.62

Eflt2    Lewisville                           1.61
rrlt2    lake ray Roberts                     1.52
tbwt2    Lake Bridgeport                      1.51
sgtt2    Springtown 4s                        1.50

Tcet2    Cement Lake                          1.49
adst2    Addison Airport                      1.48
jakt2    Jacksboro                            1.46
sout2    South Bend                           1.41

Lmgt2    Lake Graham                          1.33
sgtt2    Springtown 4s                        1.32
sget2    Sanger                               1.32
dwrt2    White Rock creek at Greenville Ave   1.32

Tbmt2    bear mtn reptr                       1.16
dcjt2    Justin                               1.15
vvwt2    Valley View 4s                       1.08
tki      McKinney ASOS                        1.02

Gelt2    Greenville RAWS                      1.02
dtnt2    Denton 2se                           1.02
tgct2    Garrett creek ranch                  1.01
tcdt2    Cottondale                           0.99

Lud      Decatur Municipal ap                 0.96
chit2    Cedar Hill 4ne                       0.95
flwt2    Lake Worth                           0.94
bcht2    Fort Worth                           0.94

Gunt2    Gunter                               0.93
jplt2    Lake Joe pool                        0.92
trot2    trwd sump 12                         0.88
fwot2    Fort Worth                           0.87

Rsrt2    Rosser                               0.86
twft2    trwd sump 13                         0.82
prpt2    Prosper                              0.82
mckt2    McKinney                             0.82

Dwht2    desert water coop#2                  0.80
wrpt2    Fort Worth federal b                 0.78
cdht2    Cedar Hill S.P. RAWS                 0.78
tddt2    Trinidad                             0.75

Rhat2    Athens RAWS                          0.74
hclt2    Hubbard Creek reserv                 0.73
ladt2    Ladonia                              0.72
wftt2    Fort Worth                           0.69

Tant2    Antelope                             0.69
hqz      Mesquite Metro airpo                 0.69
tmct2    marine Creek Lake                    0.66
cddt2    Caddo wildlife mngt                  0.65

Mgut2    Montague                             0.61
weat2    Weatherford                          0.57
subt2    Sulphur Bluff                        0.57
roxt2    Roxton                               0.56

Gpm      Grand Prairie munici                 0.56
nfw      ftw joint Reserve base               0.54
lvtt2    Celeste                              0.53
boyt2    Boyd                                 0.53

Cvet2    Collinsville                         0.51
bvwt2    Blue Ridge                           0.50